\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 670 Jiangsu Gdk Biological Technology Co.Ltd(688670) )
Main points:
Improving the penetration rate of large single products is the long-term development logic of Chinese vaccine enterprises
As an emerging market with rapid and large volume of vaccines, China's industry scale growth will exceed that of European and American markets in the future. At the same time, the Chinese market will evolve towards the current structure of the global vaccine market: high concentration and King variety. Benefiting from the improvement of industry standardization, the continuous enhancement of people's awareness of vaccination, the improvement of payment ability and willingness and the development of new vaccines, China's vaccine market is in the period of industry integration and scale acceleration. The proportion of non vaccine industry in China's immunization market is expected to increase by 25.3% from 2018 to 2023. Therefore, the future growth of China's vaccine industry depends on the rapid expansion of the non immunization planned vaccine market driven by the new large single product vaccine.
Tetravalent influenza vaccine helps the company's performance start quickly, and the layout of R & D pipeline covers all age groups
Tetravalent influenza vaccine will enjoy the double dividend of increasing penetration + replacing trivalent market. Therefore, focusing on the development and production of tetravalent influenza vaccine is the long-term development trend of China's influenza vaccine market in the future. At present, the company has a tetravalent influenza virus split vaccine approved in 2019. Compared with other approved manufacturers, the influenza vaccine produced by the company has advanced production technology and good product stability and safety. After listing, the product sales volume increased rapidly and the capacity utilization rate increased rapidly. In order to ensure product supply, the company uses the raised funds to invest in the production line construction project with a new capacity of 30 million. At the same time, the company is also developing a series of exclusive influenza vaccine products for the elderly and children. In 2021, affected by covid-19 vaccination, the company's influenza vaccine sales fell. However, with the control of the epidemic and the completion of basic vaccination, the short-term negative impact of the epidemic will gradually disappear. It is estimated that the overall revenue scale of the company's influenza vaccine series products is expected to exceed 2 billion yuan in 2025.
Multi dimensional and powerful single product + new vaccine under development, growing together with the east wind of the industry
① there are several kinds of rabies vaccine products with the highest coverage rate in the current market: single vaccine + rabies vaccine series. The lyophilized human rabies vaccine (Vero cells) under development has completed the clinical phase III trial and is currently applying for registration. In addition, the freeze-dried rabies vaccine for human use (MRC-5 cells) is in the preclinical research stage and is expected to be applied for clinical application in 2023. ② Chickenpox blister vaccine series products: carry out blister vaccine research and development in two routes simultaneously. The company's R & D projects of freeze-dried live attenuated varicella vaccine and freeze-dried live attenuated herpes zoster vaccine are expected to be applied for clinical application in 2022. In addition, the company has carried out the R & D project of recombinant herpes zoster vaccine, which is expected to be applied for clinical application in 2023. Blister vaccine is expected to become a heavy product in the population aging market. ③ Pneumonia vaccine series products: the company's R & D projects of 23 valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine and 13 valent pneumococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine are expected to be applied for clinical application in 2023 and 2024 respectively. Pneumococcal vaccine is an important single product in the global vaccine market.
Investment advice
It is estimated that the company's operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 400 / 970 / 1.27 billion, with a year-on-year increase of - 32.9% / 144.6% / 31.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 82 / 300 / 420 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of - 47.0% / 263.0% / 40.1%; The PE of the company from 2021 to 2023 is 59x / 16x / 12x respectively, and the average PE of comparable companies is about 123.7x. Considering the sustained and rapid development of the vaccine industry, the differentiated advantages of the company's influenza vaccine and the pipeline layout under research, we covered it for the first time and gave the company a "buy (first)" rating.
Risk tips
Covid-19 pneumonia has an adverse impact on the normal production and operation of the company; The risk that the clinical trial is less than expected; Risk of single main product; Product promotion is less than expected risk
