\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 51 Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021, realizing a revenue of 3.095 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 35.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 643 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 63.0%; Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 910 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 35.6%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 187 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 55.8%.
Profitability continued to improve, and hjt orders entered the revenue transformation period. Perc screen printing still accounts for the main part of the company’s revenue in 2021, and hjt has begun to contribute part of the revenue. According to the order to revenue conversion cycle, we expect Tongwei Hefei 250mwhjt production line delivered in 2019 and Huasheng 400mwhjt production line delivered in 2020 to recognize revenue in 2021. According to the early investment of 450 million / GW, it is estimated that about 300 million yuan of the company’s revenue in 2021 belongs to hjt. Affected by the renewal of perc’s large-scale equipment and the layout of hjt by downstream battery manufacturers, the company has abundant new orders and increased its gross profit margin. In 2021, the company’s gross profit margin was 38.3%, year-on-year + 4.3pp, net profit margin was 20.3%, year-on-year + 3.3pp, of which Q4 gross profit margin was 38.1%, year-on-year + 5.5pp, net profit margin was 19.9%, year-on-year + 1.5pp. The company insists on ensuring the market share through product performance and service rather than price. Although the short-term cost is affected by the rise in the price of raw materials such as steel and aluminum and imported parts of hjt, with the increase in the proportion of the company’s new product revenue of hjt, we expect the company’s gross profit margin to remain high in the future.
In 2021, orders on hand continued to increase, and R & D investment increased significantly. In terms of orders, in 2021, the company’s contract liabilities were 2.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 50%, and its inventory was 2.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 34%, including 1.91 billion yuan of goods issued, indicating that the company’s orders on hand continued to grow. As perc’s conversion efficiency approaches the ceiling, perc’s production expansion shrinks, and the company’s orders are mainly driven by hjt. According to our estimation, the overall market order of hjt in the whole industry reached 8.1gw in 2021 (excluding Europe), an increase of 330% over 2020. Among them, the company obtained 5.8gw orders, accounting for 72% of the market, and 5.8gw has received advance payment from customers. According to the calculation of 400 million yuan / GW, the newly signed hjt orders of the company in 2021 reached 2.32 billion yuan. In terms of expenses, the company’s expense rate during 2021 was 19.2%, year-on-year + 1.9pp, of which the sales expense rate was 6.4%, year-on-year + 1.4pp; The management expense rate (excluding R & D) was 3.0%, year-on-year -1.4pp, and the financial expense rate was -0.9%, year-on-year -1.5pp. In 2021, the company’s R & D investment was 330 million yuan, with a year-on-year + 100%, and the R & D expense rate was 10.7%, with a year-on-year + 3.5pp. Among them, the R & D investment was mainly invested in hjt equipment, display panel and semiconductor equipment, opening up the company’s follow-up development space.
The platform layout is deepened, the expectation of high growth of new orders in 22 years is strengthened, and the company is optimistic about the long-term growth of the company. We expect that the new capacity of hjt industry will be about 20-30gw in 2022. According to 25gw, the company’s 70% market share and nearly 400 million yuan / GW equipment investment, the company’s new hjt order in 22 years is expected to be nearly 7 billion yuan. The production expansion rhythm of hjt is mainly affected by the cost reduction speed of hjt. It is expected that with the orderly progress of cost reduction nodes such as microcrystalline PECVD, half rod sheet, reduction of silver slurry consumption (smbb + silver clad copper) and localization of slurry, hjt is expected to achieve single w cost leveling perc by the end of 22. If so, the leading battery manufacturers in 23 years are expected to accelerate the layout of hjt technology. In addition to hjt, the company relies on graphic printing, vacuum, laser and other technologies to expand semiconductor and display equipment. In terms of semiconductors, the company has signed supply agreements with Jcet Group Co.Ltd(600584) , Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) on semiconductor wafer laser slotting equipment, and signed trial orders with five other enterprises. The company’s semiconductor wafer laser upgrading and cutting equipment has also been developed and will be verified. In terms of panel, according to the international bidding network, since October 2021, the company has won four orders from BOE, including two bending cutting machines (one in Mianyang and one in Chongqing), one laser drilling machine (BOE Chongqing) and one film cutting machine equipment transformation (Chengdu BOE). Semiconductor packaging equipment, panel array and cell end equipment have broad replacement space, which is expected to become another growth point to promote the release of long-term orders after hjt.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: benefiting from the release of hjt orders and the promotion of the company’s Pan semiconductor layout, the company raised its profit forecast. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 890 / 14.4 / 2.04 billion from 2022 to 2024, corresponding to pe67 / 41 / 29 times, maintaining the rating of “overweight”.
Risk tip: the iteration of photovoltaic technology is less than expected, the research and development of new technology is less than expected, and the market competition intensifies the risk.
