\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 96 Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) )
Event: the company released the performance express of 2021, realizing a revenue of 13.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 28.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.5%; Single Q4 is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 42.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 320 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 1.7%
The revenue of 21q4 slightly exceeded the expectation, and the expense front suppressed the profit side. The growth rate of the company's 21q4 revenue side exceeded expectations, mainly due to the low stock of raw pulp series in Q3 Gujing year and the low quota of dealers, which brought the high willingness of the channel to stock goods and helped Q4 to increase the volume. The suppression of 21q4 profit end is mainly due to the company's high cost investment in product promotion and the advance of promotion expenses brought by the Spring Festival.
The upgrading of Hui liquor consumption continues, and the scene recovery brings high elasticity. In the medium and long term, Anhui Province has a high degree of economic activity, which brings strong resilience to residents' consumption ability, and the upward movement of price belt is the general trend. Vintage original pulp Gu 5 / Gu 8 / Gu 16 / Gu 20 occupy 100 / 200 / 300 / 500 price bands respectively, which is expected to fully benefit from the upgrading of Hui liquor structure. In the short term, as a province with a net outflow of population, Anhui will benefit from the tide of returning home during the Spring Festival in 2022, with strong dynamic sales exceeding expectations and a promising start.
The leading position in the province is stable, and regional breakthroughs outside the province strengthen potential energy. The absolute leading position of the company in the province is stable, and the depth benefits from the expansion of the secondary high-end price belt. The layout of GU20 is ahead of schedule, and the rapid growth can be expected. The use of brand synergy and regional radiation outside the province continues to expand, and the brand accumulation is expected to continue to strengthen.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the company's earnings per share from 2021 to 2022 will be 4.33 yuan and 5.85 yuan, and the six-month target price will be 234 yuan. The corresponding PE in 2022 will be 40x, giving a Buy-A rating.
Risk tip: the price belt above Gu 20 is highly competitive; The reform of competitive products in the province intensifies competition; Economic downside risk
