\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
Event: the company announced that from January to February 2022, it is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of more than 7.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 35%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is expected to be more than 2.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 50%.
The company has made a good start in the Spring Festival, and the blue and white series and other medium and high-end products have achieved substantial growth.
The company firmly adheres to the strategy of “grasping blue and white, strengthening waist and stabilizing glass Fen”, arranges the peak season of the Spring Festival in advance, overcomes the impact of the epidemic in each sales area, and the overall market has a good dynamic sales. At present, the price of Qinghua series is strong, and the wholesale price of Qinghua 20 / Qinghua 30 (revival version) is 375 / 830 yuan. We expect that Qinghua Fen Liquor series is expected to continue to increase in 22 years; Blue and white 30 (revival version) is gradually increasing and is expected to accelerate its growth; Bofen’s product strength is outstanding, there is still room for price increase, the product structure blooms at many points, and the strategic direction planning is clear. The company’s 22q1 revenue is expected to reach 9.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 30%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 50%.
The national expansion is unstoppable, and the company continues to gather brand potential energy to comprehensively improve operation efficiency. Focus on brand promotion and consumer cultivation as the core, improve the level of marketing management, increase the assessment system, optimize dealers at different levels, and build a manufacturer community. Implement the “1357 + 10” market layout, deeply cultivate the base Market in the province, and promote steady breakthroughs in markets outside the province such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Anhui and Guangdong. The number of markets above 100 million yuan nationwide increased to 22, and the team of high-quality dealers outside the province continued to grow. The number of dealers outside the province increased by 30.5% year-on-year, and the number of controllable terminals increased to 1.05 million; The traditional sector of bamboo leaf green wine has rapidly expanded the terminal scale, and the innovative sector covers medium and high-end communities in more than 300 cities. As of 21q3, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) had sold 10.271 billion yuan in markets outside the province in the first three quarters, breaking the 10 billion mark for the first time, accounting for 60% of the total sales.
The company’s fundamentals continue to improve, with two rounds of promotion of high-end and nationalization, and the development goal of the 14th five year plan is expected to be achieved. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, Fenjiu defined three stages and their mission objectives, that is, and configured it with the “133238” marketing operation plan. The launch of blue and white 30 revival version leads the company’s high-end process to further accelerate. Blue and white series is a key year for structural upgrading in 2022, occupying an important strategic position in the 14th five year plan. Through continuous internal reform and optimization and external assistance, Fenjiu is showing its vigorous and powerful development momentum through the fluctuating recovery, growth and adjustment stage.
Investment suggestions: the performance forecast in 2021 is brilliant, the number of dealers has increased, the market has been opened up, the expansion outside the province has accelerated, the gross profit margin has increased, and the excellent period cost control has been superimposed. The revenue and profit from January to February of 22 are higher than expected, and the 14th five year plan, the revenue and profit are expected to further increase, Therefore, we adjusted the profit forecast from the previously estimated revenue of RMB 213.792785335 billion in 20212023 and the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 5.247/70.72/9.279 billion to the estimated revenue of RMB 214.04/288.96/36.120 billion in 20212023, with a year-on-year increase of 53% / 35% / 25%, net profit of RMB 5.118/79.84/10.778 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 79.21% / 44.69% / 34.98%, and EPS of RMB 4.52/6.54/8.83/share, Maintain the company’s “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the operating data from January to February is preliminary accounting, which may be different from the actual data, which is only for phased reference. The macroeconomic downturn, food safety risks, expansion outside the province is not expected, competition increases market input and intensifies competition, and the epidemic affects the normal consumption of Baijiu again and again.
