\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 867 Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) )
Key investment points
The performance express shows that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years is + 21%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 alone is - 26%. After excluding non operating profits and losses, the gross profit and net profit deducted from Q4 are close to the level of 20q4, and the actual operation is in line with the expectation: the revenue in 2021 is 9.155 billion (YoY + 80.07%), the net profit attributable to the parent company is 1.228 billion (YoY + 21.21%), and the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company is 1.193 billion (YoY + 26.17%); Q4 revenue is 2.682 billion (YoY + 54.55%), net profit attributable to parent is 223 million (yoy-26.08%), and net profit attributable to non parent is 230 million (yoy-18.93%). According to the company's announcement, non operating factors have a significant impact on net profit. After excluding the impact of non operating factors, the company's Q4 gross profit and deducted non net profit are close to the same period in 2020.
The Q3 stock up is sufficient, and the epidemic situation has a great impact on the Q4 order meeting. The Q4 inlay replenishment is greatly affected: the Q3 Provincial Service Center model promotion and synchronous policy empowerment and the order meeting in September will increase the take-up volume and overdraw part of the take-up of Q4. From the statement, the net profit attributable to the parent company of Q3 is 396 million, yoy + 3.68%, which is higher than that of 19q3 + 56.91%. There is still an increase under the high base. The winter orders in December, which originally contributed greatly to Q4 performance, will be affected by the epidemic and will not play a normal role. In particular, the delivery of diamond inlaid products will be significantly affected, and the delivery of Q4 is lower than that in the same period.
Risk aversion + stimulation of aesthetic demand, the gold was popular from January to February, and the business data announcement of Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) 1-february showed that the net profit attributable to the parent company + 36% showed a bright performance and showed the leading quality: from January to February 2022, the company realized an operating revenue of about 2.319 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 203.11%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was about 218 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.01%. According to the "2022 China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) Market Outlook" report released by the World Gold Council, the China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) demand consumption in 2022 has achieved a "good start". During the Spring Festival, China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) consumption still increased by 12% year-on-year despite the high base of last year. Among them, the growth rate of low line is higher than that of first and second line, and the growth rate of head brand is better than that of regional brand.
The implementation of the provincial representative needs a running in period, and the results are expected to be released in 22q2. The hope of opening stores ushers in an inflection point: the worst time point for net opening of stores has passed, and the provincial representative has accelerated & guaranteed the pace of opening stores in 22 years: by the end of 2021, the number of stores of the company has reached 4502, with a net increase of 313 stores in the whole year. The pace of opening stores has accelerated quarter by quarter. Since 2021q3, the speed of opening stores has increased significantly. Q1-Q4 increased by 2 / 66 / 100 / 145 respectively. In 21 years, it is still in the running in period of provincial representatives, and the results have not been significantly released. In 22 years, cooperation and incentives have been strengthened. Q2-q3 is expected to have prominent results and enter a new round of high-quality expansion.
Since February, the sharp and rapid rise of gold price and the outbreak of epidemic in many places have disturbed the industry, and the leader can better counter the trend and accelerate the industry concentration: the rise of gold price reached about 11.5% from February 1 to March 11, superimposed with the impact of the continuous expansion of the epidemic, it is expected that the terminal pressure will be obvious from March. Under the background of the disturbance of the industry and the challenge of the business environment, Small brands with weak risk resistance are expected to continue to be cleared, and the leader is expected to continue to expand and accelerate industry concentration.
The total amount of the company's shares to be repurchased by the board of directors is expected to be gradually used as the incentive fund of , The repurchase price shall not exceed 27.68 yuan / share (inclusive). By the end of February 22, about 5.32 million shares had been repurchased, accounting for 0.49% of the total share capital, and the total payment amount was 99.53 million yuan (excluding transaction costs).
Profit forecast and Valuation: the product structure optimization & digitization & distribution model improves the profit space of single store income, the provincial agent implementation drives the expansion of stores to speed up, the new traffic platform and e-commerce layout are leading, and the channels continue to be large-scale. In addition, the net access fee of jigram gold will be increased to 12 yuan per gram, and the profit sharing proportion will be increased, which will increase the performance flexibility. Considering the great impact of the epidemic and the expected launch of equity incentive after share repurchase (considering the cost of equity incentive fees), the revenue of 21 / 22 / 23 is expected to be 9.155147.44/17.392 billion yuan, an increase of 80.1% / 61.0% / 18.0%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is 12.28/14.71/1.789 billion, an increase of 21.2% / 19.7% / 21.7%, corresponding to pe15.5% 8/12.4/10.2X。 Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) is the most enterprising head brand. Its performance has increased steadily and maintained the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: intensified competition; The expansion of new brands is less than expected; Store expansion was less than expected.
