Xizi Jieneng ( Hangzhou Boiler Group Co.Ltd(002534) )
Key investment points
Event: the company announced that on March 12, 2022, the company and Shaoxing green power energy Co., Ltd. signed the contract for green power molten salt energy storage demonstration project. The contract amount of the project is 192 million yuan, and the construction period is that the molten salt energy storage heating system will meet the steam production conditions before August 30, 2022. The project is the first molten salt energy storage project of the third-party Zero Carbon Industrial Park deployed by Xizi Jieneng (in November 2021, the company built molten salt energy storage and gas supply system for Xizi aviation zero carbon plant project).
There is a broad market space for industrial heating, and molten salt energy storage has great prospects. In the context of 3060, the traditional coal-fired heating methods (including industrial heating and residential heating) face great pressure on carbon emission reduction, and the general trend of transformation and upgrading. Among them, alternative ways in the field of industrial heating include molten salt energy storage heating and natural gas heating. Molten salt energy storage and heating technology is mature. It mainly uses valley power as the heat source to meet the large-scale steam demand of industrial parks (such as chemical fiber and papermaking). With the introduction of the national time of use price mechanism, the peak valley price difference in some regions (such as Guangdong, Guangxi, Jiangsu and other places) has further widened, The molten salt energy storage and heating mode has been initially economical (i.e. the cost is lower than that of natural gas heating. According to the calculation in the Sino Thai machinery outsourcing report "molten salt energy storage pioneer, opening up a broad physical energy storage market", in Guangdong Province, the cost of molten salt energy storage and heating in the industrial field is 267 yuan / ton steam, which is lower than 279 yuan / ton steam, which is more ideal to replace coal-fired heating) 。 The implementation of Xizi Jieneng Shaoxing project shows that the mode of molten salt energy storage and heating in the industrial field has entered the stage of large-scale application from a small-scale demonstration project. Considering only the demand for steam and hot water in the industrial field, the annual demand for the stock transformation of molten salt energy storage and heating is 179.7 billion yuan, and the one-time fixed investment is 692.7 billion yuan. The curtain of molten salt energy storage market has been slowly opened.
After more than ten years of deep cultivation of molten salt energy storage, the first molten salt energy storage project in zero carbon industrial park has proved its strength. In 2011, the company began to devote itself to the research and development of solar thermal power generation system. The heat collection system and heat storage and exchange system designed and supplied by the company were successfully put into operation in Delingha, Qinghai Province in July 2013. It is the first set of solar thermal power generation project put into commercial operation in China. After years of operation practice, the company has mastered the core engineering design and operation experience of molten salt energy storage, and the technology is mature. At the same time, the company can also provide complete services for salt melting and storage equipment, such as salt melting equipment, heat exchanger and so on. The implementation of the molten salt energy storage project in the zero carbon industrial park fully proves the strength of the company and can be expected to expand in the field of industrial heating in the future.
"Triple performance" is highlighted, and the product strategic line continues to deepen. Zhongtai machinery believes that the core point of the company's investment value is "triple performance". Among them, the first performance is the traditional boiler business. Under the 3060 carbon emission reduction target, superimposed with the company's internal management reform, the boiler business has opened a high growth mode, and the order gagr from 2019 to 2021 is 41.47%, so as to provide support for the high growth of performance; The second performance is the acquisition of Hepu energy (to be acquired) and Lanjie energy to enter the 100 billion thermal power flexible transformation market, which is expected to become another growth pole of the company; The third performance is the molten salt energy storage business, which is about to usher in large volume and has high flexibility. The implementation of the molten salt energy storage project in the zero carbon industrial park is not only the fulfillment of the third performance, but also the continuous deepening of the company's product strategic route (i.e. focusing on the 3060 strategy and laying out the whole industrial chain of upstream, middle and downstream carbon reduction), which is optimistic about the long-term development of the company.
Maintain the "buy" rating: regardless of the acquisition thickening of HEPP energy and Lanjie energy, we expect the net profit from 2021 to 2023 to be 506 / 852 / 1172 million yuan, with a corresponding valuation of 36 / 21 / 16 times.
Risk tips: the industrialization process of molten salt energy storage is less than expected, the expansion progress of the company's molten salt energy storage business is less than expected, the risk of decline in profitability caused by the rise in the price of raw materials, the risk of deviation in the calculation of industry market scale, the risk of order landing less than expected, etc.
