\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 597 Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) )
Matters:
Company announcement: the company issued the announcement of 2021 annual performance express. After preliminary accounting, the annual operating revenue in 2021 was 5.845 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.44%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.168 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.62%.
Guoxin chemical's view:
1) the prosperity of bulk chemicals and sweeteners both rose, and the company's performance increased significantly: in the first three quarters of 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to its parent company of 713 million yuan, and in the fourth quarter, a net profit attributable to its parent company of 455 million yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of 145.95%. During the reporting period, the company's 5000 t / a sucralose production capacity was put into operation and completed the capacity climb, contributing to the incremental performance. In 2021, the prosperity of bulk chemicals increased, and the average sales price of some bulk chemicals of the company increased year-on-year. In 2021, the commodity boom was upward, and the commodity prices of the company's main products rose to varying degrees. Among them, the prices of melamine and ammonium bicarbonate rose sharply, rising 44.64% and 49.81% respectively throughout the year. The prices of nitric acid, formaldehyde and hydrogen peroxide reached 2979 yuan / ton, 2065 yuan / ton and 1748 yuan / ton respectively. At the same time, due to the rise in the price of raw materials, the sales price of the company's sweeteners, spices and other food additives has increased. With the recovery of the epidemic, the global demand for sugar substitutes has increased, and the volume and price of the company's main sweeteners have risen, driving the company's performance to increase significantly.
2) new production capacity of sucralose: firstly, the supply and demand were tightened, and the sugar substitute boom was upward: from August 2021, the global epidemic gradually recovered, the downstream food and beverage recovered slightly, the price of bulk chemicals superimposed with sweetener raw materials rose rapidly, and the price of the company's main sweetener increased. The highest price of Acer honey rose to 95000 yuan / ton, and the highest prices of methyl malt powder and ethyl maltol rose to 150000 yuan / ton and 180000 yuan / ton respectively. Among them, DMF (dimethylformamide) and sulfoxide chloride, the main raw materials of sucralose, rose sharply due to the price rise of upstream raw materials, supply contraction and demand growth in downstream application fields, supporting the rise of sucralose price. In 2021, the Ministry of ecology and environment issued the guidance on strengthening the source prevention and control of ecological environment of high energy consumption and high emission projects. Sucralose is divided into high pollution industries. According to the implementation of China's energy consumption dual control policy and supporting policies throughout the country, in principle, it is difficult for Chinese enterprises to obtain new approved new projects of sucralose, and the cost side is increased and the demand is recovered, The price of sucralose rose rapidly to the highest 480000 yuan / ton, and the price of sucralose is expected to remain at a high level due to the lack of new production capacity.
3) investment suggestion: the company's main business sucralose is limited by the "two high" policy, the new production capacity of the industry is difficult to be approved, the demand for sugar substitute drinks continues to increase, and the industry maintains a high outlook under the tight balance between sucralose supply and demand. We believe that the company's addition of sucralose in 2021 will contribute to the annual performance, increase the production capacity of 5000 tons of maltol, continue to promote the second phase planning of Dingyuan, continue to expand the layout of the company in the field of sugar substitutes, and stabilize the leading position of sugar substitutes in the world. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 21 to 23 years is RMB 1.168/16.36/1.672 billion, the corresponding EPS is RMB 2.08/2.92/2.98, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 18.4/13.1/12.8x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Comments:
The prosperity of bulk chemicals and sweeteners increased, and the company's performance increased significantly. The company issued the announcement of 2021 annual performance express. After preliminary accounting, the annual operating revenue in 2021 was 5.845 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.44%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.168 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.62%. In the first three quarters of 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 713 million yuan, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 455 million yuan in a single quarter in the fourth quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 145.95%. During the reporting period, the company's 5000 t / a sucralose production capacity was put into operation and completed the capacity climb, contributing to the incremental performance. In 2021, the prosperity of bulk chemicals increased, and the average sales price of some bulk chemicals of the company increased year-on-year. At the same time, due to the rise in the price of raw materials, the sales price of the company's sweeteners, spices and other food additives has increased. With the recovery of the epidemic, the global demand for sugar substitutes has increased, and the volume and price of the company's main sweeteners have risen, driving the company's performance to increase significantly.
In 2021, the commodity boom was upward, and the commodity prices of the company's main products rose to varying degrees. Among them, the prices of melamine and ammonium bicarbonate rose sharply, rising 44.64% and 49.81% respectively throughout the year. The prices of nitric acid, formaldehyde and hydrogen peroxide reached 2979 yuan / ton, 2065 yuan / ton and 1748 yuan / ton respectively. Since August 2021, the global epidemic has gradually recovered, the downstream food and beverage has recovered slightly, the price of bulk chemicals superimposed with sweetener raw materials has increased rapidly, and the price of the company's main sweetener has increased. The highest price of Acer honey rose to 95000 yuan / ton, and the highest prices of methyl malt powder and ethyl maltol rose to 150000 yuan / ton and 180000 yuan / ton respectively. The price rise of raw materials in the upstream and downstream sectors such as sucralose trichloride (DMSO) and sucralose (DMF) was mainly supported by the sharp rise in the price of raw materials. In 2021, the Ministry of ecology and environment issued the guidance on strengthening the source prevention and control of ecological environment of high energy consumption and high emission projects. Sucralose is divided into high pollution industries. According to the implementation of China's energy consumption dual control policy and supporting policies throughout the country, in principle, it is difficult for Chinese enterprises to obtain new approved new projects of sucralose, and the cost side is increased and the demand is recovered, The price of sucralose rose rapidly to the highest 480000 yuan / ton, and the price of sucralose is expected to remain at a high level due to the lack of new production capacity.
The second production base of Dingyuan is arranged, and the company continues to grow steadily. In 2017, the company signed the framework agreement of Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) circular economy industrial park project with the people's Government of Dingyuan county. The project takes Jinxuan technology as the main body and plans to invest 2.25 billion yuan to build the project in two phases. The first phase plans to invest 800-1 billion yuan to build a 75t / h sub high temperature and sub high pressure boiler project with 15000 tons of furfural supporting combustion furfural residue and biomass raw materials, 80000 tons of thionyl chloride project, high-efficiency disinfectant project with chlorine as raw material, 3000t / D sewage treatment plant project and 5000 tons of methyl ethyl wheat germ phenol plant, In 2019, the project of 5000 tons of methyl ethyl maltol will be adjusted to 4500 tons of Jiale musk solution, 5000 tons of 2-methylfuran, 3000 tons of 2-methyltetrahydrofuran and 1000 tons of furan ammonium salt. The second phase plans to invest 1-1.2 billion yuan to build 100000 tons of industrial alcohol project, 40000 tons of Guyuan powder, 40000 tons of flour, 30000 tons of acetaldehyde, 20000 tons of crotonaldehyde, 30000 tons of diketene and 30000 tons of potassium sorbate.
Dingyuan project mainly aims to cover the upstream raw materials of sweeteners, and uses the development of upstream raw materials to expand the downstream industrial chain, realize the vertical integration and horizontal expansion of the industrial chain, including the development of Jiale musk and ammonium furan salt production capacity, which is conducive to the company's development in fine chemicals such as food additives and pharmaceutical intermediates Expansion of related industries in the field of biotechnology. The two phase has various ingredients of food additives, providing raw materials and development possibilities for the company to develop more additives and flavors and fragrances in the future. At present, Dingyuan phase I project has been put into operation except 10000 tons of furfural, 40000 tons of thionyl chloride, 5000 tons of 2-methylfuran and 3000 tons of 2-methyltetrahydrofuran. As the two phases of Dingyuan project are approved separately, the second phase project is actively applying for various approval procedures such as environmental impact assessment. After the completion of Dingyuan project, the company will realize the vertical integration of sweetener industry chain, provide possibilities for horizontal development and become the absolute leader of sweeteners in China.
Investment suggestion: sucralose maintains high prosperity and "buy" rating
The company's main business sucralose is limited by the "two high" policy, the new production capacity of the industry is difficult to be approved, the demand for sugar substitute drinks continues to increase, and the industry maintains a high outlook under the tight balance between sucralose supply and demand. We believe that the company's addition of sucralose in 2021 will contribute to the annual performance, increase the production capacity of 5000 tons of maltol, continue to promote the second phase planning of Dingyuan, continue to expand the layout of the company in the field of sugar substitutes, and stabilize the leading position of sugar substitutes in the world. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 21 to 23 years is RMB 1.168/16.36/1.672 billion, the corresponding EPS is RMB 2.08/2.92/2.98, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 18.4/13.1/12.8x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The risk that the epidemic will lead to the contraction of downstream food and beverage demand; The risk of tightening environmental protection and low-carbon policies such as dual control of energy consumption; Risk that the project is put into operation less than expected; Risk of large fluctuations in product prices.
