\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 867 Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) )
Matters:
Announcement of the company: the annual performance express of 2021 was released. The annual operating revenue was 9.155 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.07%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 1.228 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.21%, and the deduction of non net profit was 1.193 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.17%.
Guoxin retail view: 1) in the fourth quarter of 2021, the company is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 2.682 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 54.55%. The sales of gold products under the beneficiary province generation mode has increased significantly, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is 223 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 26.08%, and the net profit deducted from non net profit has decreased by 18.93% year-on-year. It is expected to be affected by the repeated epidemic in some regions The increase in the proportion of gold categories with relatively low gross profit and the withdrawal of tens of millions of bad debts are affected by many factors.
2) in terms of the number of stores, the company has a net increase of 313 stores to 4502 stores in 2021, of which 145 stores were opened in the fourth quarter, accounting for 46% of the net stores in the whole year. On the whole, it benefited from the company's implementation of the provincial agency model in Q3 in 2021, integrating the channels, funds and retail experience of all parties, and helping the franchisees' daily operation and opening stores. 3) In general, the company, as the first-line leader of gold and jewelry, integrated advantageous resources and accelerated the opening of stores after introducing the provincial generation model at the channel end. While consolidating the advantages of inlaid products at the category end, the company paid more attention to gold products to grasp the opportunities at the retail end. At the same time, the online channel actively laid out the decoration track, so as to further expand the company's market share. Considering the increase in the sales proportion of gold products with low gross profit margin and the repeated impact of the epidemic, we lowered the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to 1.228 billion yuan / 1.553 billion yuan / 1.898 billion yuan (the previous value was 1.345 billion yuan / 1.651 billion yuan / 1.950 billion yuan respectively), and the corresponding PE was 14.9x/11.8x/9.6x times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Comments:
The results express for 2021 was released, and the net profit attributable to the parent company for the whole year is expected to be 1.228 billion yuan
According to the company's announcement, in 2021, the annual operating revenue was 9.155 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.07%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.228 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.21%. Specifically, the company officially introduced the provincial agency model in 2021, carried out gold exhibition and sales business through the Provincial Service Center, and gradually made efforts in gold products. The sales of gold products increased significantly in the second half of the year, driving the steady and high growth of revenue. On the profit side, the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 in 2021 decreased by about 26% year-on-year. It is expected to be affected by many factors, such as the repeated epidemic in some regions, the increase in the proportion of gold categories with relatively low gross profit, and the provision for bad debts of tens of millions.
In terms of store development, the company had a net increase of 313 stores to 4502 stores in 2021, including 145 stores in the fourth quarter, accounting for 46% of the net stores in the whole year. On the whole, the company benefited from the implementation of the provincial agency model in 2021q3. In terms of the provincial agent model, it will help to accelerate the further integrated development of the company and franchise customers, fully improve the supply chain operation and capital turnover efficiency of the company, solve the bottleneck problem of local distribution efficiency of gold products, integrate high-quality customer resources in the market, stimulate the vitality of channel development, strengthen the expansion of stores and optimize the layout of stores, Quickly seize the local market share.
Investment suggestion: gold and jewelry are the first-line leaders and maintain the "buy" rating
As the first-line leader of gold and jewelry, the company integrates advantageous resources and accelerates the opening of stores after introducing the provincial generation model at the channel end. While consolidating the advantages of inlaid products at the category end, the company pays more attention to gold products to grasp the opportunities at the retail end. At the same time, the online channels actively layout jewelry tracks, so as to further expand the company's market share. Taking into account the increase in the proportion of gold sales with low gross profit margin and the repeated impact of the epidemic, we lowered the forecast of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to 1.228 billion yuan / 1.553 billion yuan / 1.898 billion yuan (the previous value was 1.345 billion yuan / 1.651 billion yuan / 1.950 billion yuan respectively), and the corresponding PE was 14.9x/11.8x/9.6x times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The epidemic situation has repeatedly affected the prosperity of terminal consumption; The promotion of provincial agency business is less than expected; The exhibition shop is not as expected; Product design and product innovation have not kept up with the changes of end consumer demand.
