\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 176 China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) )
Key investment points
From January to February of 22, the total profit increased by more than 60%, and the high profitability continued to be maintained under the industry boom
The company announced that benefiting from the growth in demand for lightweight products brought about by the growth in sales of new energy vehicles, the growth of high-strength and high-modulus products brought about by the growth of renewable energy industries such as wind power, and the increase in demand for large categories of fiberglass products brought about by infrastructure projects driven by China’s steady economic growth, the roving market at home and abroad showed an upward trend, especially in Europe, America and other overseas markets, The company’s mainstream roving products are in short supply. At present, the company’s production bases outside China are operating at full capacity, the roving production and sales rate remains high, the inventory level continues to maintain a historical low, the sales price has increased steadily month on month, and the production and operation situation is stable and good. The company announced that the total profit increased by more than 60% year-on-year from January to February 2022. We judged that it was mainly due to the year-on-year increase in the average price of products and the continuous optimization of product structure, resulting in the improvement of ton profit. According to the data of Zhuo Chuang information, the average price of winding direct yarn (2400tex) from January to February 2022 was 6186 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 475 yuan / ton (+ 8.3%), The average price of electronic yarn G75 was 12143 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 324 yuan / ton (+ 2.7%).
The industry cycle is expected to weaken, the roving boom is expected to continue, and the price of electronic cloth has reached the bottom range
For roving, we expect that the industry’s new capacity in 22 years is limited, about 420000 tons. With the overall improvement of the demand side, we expect the roving boom in 22 years to continue. For electronic yarn, according to the glass fiber information network, the 60000 ton electronic yarn production line of Taishan glass fiber Zoucheng was ignited on December 31, 2001. At the same time, we expect that the China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) 100000 ton electronic yarn production line at the end of 22q2 is expected to be ignited. With the gradual release of new capacity, we expect that the supply end of electronic yarn / electronic cloth will still be under pressure. According to the data of Zhuo Chuang information, the average price of electronic cloth has dropped from the high point of 8-9 yuan / m to about 3.7 yuan / M (data on March 11). Under the current price, we judge that it is difficult for second tier enterprises to make profits. The price of electronic cloth has gradually entered the bottom range, and there is limited room for further decline. In the medium and long term, under the “dual control of energy consumption”, it is more difficult for the industry to increase new production capacity, the landing uncertainty increases, and the growth rate of the supply side of the industry may slow down; Driven by wind power, automobile, electronics and other fields, the demand side grew steadily; We judge that the industry cyclicality is expected to weaken.
The market share is expected to continue to increase and the product structure will continue to be optimized
The company has incomparable advantages in terms of capacity scale / cost. Through continuous cost reduction and efficiency increase, the core competitiveness is expected to continue to be enhanced. Profitable in α Under the attribute, the company’s production capacity continues to expand. We expect that the 100000 ton electronic yarn in Tongxiang / 120000 ton roving in Egypt / 150000 ton roving production line in Chengdu intelligent manufacturing base is expected to be put into operation at the end of 22q2 / the end of 22 / 23h1 respectively, and the market share of the company is expected to further increase. Meanwhile, the company continues to increase the proportion of high-end products (wind power / thermoplastic / electronic yarn, etc.), and the growth / profitability of high-end products is better, which is expected to enhance the company’s anti cyclical and profitability.
Investment suggestion: we predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 6.4/6.5/6.8 billion yuan in 21-23 years, maintaining the original profit forecast, corresponding to 10.0 / 9.8 / 9.4 times of the current share price PE. Considering that the industry cycle is expected to weaken, the roving boom continues, the company’s production capacity expands steadily, the product structure continues to be optimized, and the “overweight” rating is maintained.
Risk warning: the demand is less than expected; The new production capacity of small enterprises exceeded expectations; The price of medium and high-end products fell more than expected
