\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 68 Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) )
Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) released the 21 year performance express. In 2022, the revenue was 20.38 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, the net profit was 7.85 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 30.7%, of which 4q21 revenue was 6.27 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 24.1%, and the net profit was 1.57 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 32.2%.
Key points supporting rating
In 2021, the product structure increased rapidly and the performance rate was further reduced. (1) High end famous liquor fully enjoys consumption upgrading. The company has strong channel management and control ability and continues to promote national layout. We judge that the volume and price of Guojiao 1573 will rise together in 2021, achieving rapid growth, which is higher than the average level of the company. In the past year, Guojiao 1573 implemented a two track price system. The company dynamically adjusted the planned and unplanned shipments according to the inventory situation. At present, the wholesale prices of high and low-grade products are about 920 yuan and 640 yuan respectively, ensuring the benign market sales. (2) As a mid-range liquor, Tequ, a time-honored brand, will upgrade its products in 2020 and steadily push up its price. With the improvement of consumer acceptance, we judge that the sales will improve significantly in the third quarter of 2021. (3) With the continuous improvement of Guojiao 1573’s brand strength, the company has changed the way of channel cost delivery, continued to promote fine management and precision marketing strategies, and controlled the channel cost. The sales cost rate of 1-3q21 company has decreased by 1.7pct year-on-year. It is expected that 4q21 will still maintain the pace of delivery in the first three quarters, and the cost-effectiveness ratio will continue to improve. (4) 4q21 revenue increased by 24.1% year-on-year, maintaining the growth momentum of 1-3q21.
The national layout was promoted in an orderly manner, the equity incentive scheme was implemented, and the company maintained a high potential energy development trend.
(1) the company has implemented the regional market development strategy of “moving eastward, southward and rising in the middle”. The markets in North China, Sichuan and Chongqing have been intensively cultivated, the construction of market channels in East China, South China and Central South has been effective, and the national market has developed in an orderly manner. (2) The implementation of the company’s restricted stock incentive scheme has deeply bound the interests of senior executives with the company, with a wide range of core backbone incentives, fully stimulated internal vitality and strengthened performance release motivation. (3) The company’s brand potential continues to rise and the national layout is advancing steadily. It is expected that the company’s expense rate will have some room for optimization in the future. (4) We believe that during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the company can exceed the performance assessment objectives and run continuously and rapidly.
Valuation
According to the performance forecast, we raised the profit forecast. It is expected that the EPS in 20212023 will be 5.36, 6.78 and 8.41 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 30.8%, 26.4% and 24.0%, and the corresponding P / E ratio will be 38.3, 30.3 and 24.5x respectively, maintaining the buy rating.
Main risks of rating
The prices of pumao and puwu fluctuated. Channel inventory exceeded expectations
