\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 867 Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) )
Performance review
3.12 the company released the performance express for 21 years. In the whole year of 21, the company achieved a revenue of 9.155 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 1.228 billion yuan, an increase of 21%, and a deduction of 1.193 billion yuan, an increase of 26%. The basic EPS is 1.13 yuan and the weighted average roe is 21.39%.
Business analysis
The company’s bad debt accrual + Q4. 1-4q21 quarterly revenue + 71% / + 62% / + 120% / + 55%, net profit attributable to parent + 134% / + 63% / + 4% / – 26%, deducting net profit not attributable to parent + 151% / + 66% / + 7% / – 19%. The growth rate of 4q21 revenue slowed down month on month, mainly because the epidemic situation in many places affected the effect of the company’s winter ordering meeting; Net profit fell year-on-year due to the rapid growth of low gross profit gold, the pressure of high gross profit mosaic business affected by orders, and the provision of bad debts of 60-70 million yuan (mainly including franchise credit sales, high-tech investment losses, e-commerce agents and Suning channels). Excluding bad debt provision, Q4 net profit was basically flat year-on-year. 1-4q21 net interest rate 20% / 23% / 11% / 8%, deducting non net interest rate 19% / 22% / 10% / 9%.
Store expansion accelerated month on month under the provincial generation mode. At the end of 2021, there were 4502 stores and 2 / 68 / 100 / 145 stores in q1-4, including 6 / 0 / 5 self operated stores in q1-3 and 8 / 68 / 105 franchise stores. It is expected that Q4 self operated stores will continue to adjust and the net new stores will be franchise stores. The provincial representative will integrate local franchise resources, alleviate the pressure of franchise funds, and the expansion of stores has achieved initial results. Split single stores, q1-4 single stores + 55% / 51% / 105% / 46% year-on-year, compared with – 10% / 0% / 47% / 18% in 19 years. The average number of stores under q3-4 provincial generation model increased significantly.
Diamond inlay and gold categories continued to promote innovation, and gold categories achieved rapid growth. In 2021, the diamond inlay category launched “love100 constellation Aurora diamond Master Series” and the gold category launched “extraordinary ancient method gold series”, actively expanding fashion, cultural and creative jewelry, hoping to benefit from the demand and drive the growth; In terms of channels, provincial service providers are introduced to carry out gold exhibition and sales mode, and franchisees are encouraged to distribute ancient gold jewelry. 1h21 company’s revenue of plain gold jewelry was 1.2 billion yuan, an increase of 86% at the same time. It is expected that there will still be a rapid growth in the whole year.
Investment advice
The promotion of provincial representative model + the gross profit margin is lower than the sales growth of inlaid gold categories, and the net profit growth may be under pressure. Cut down the profit forecast, and it is estimated that the revenue of 21-23 years will be 9.16/123.6/15.37 billion yuan, + 80% / 35% / 24%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 1.23/15.4/1.86 billion yuan, + 22% / 25% / 21%; EPS decreased by 10% / 7% / 6% to 1.12/1.40/1.69 yuan respectively, and pe11.7% in 22 years 9. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Industry competition intensifies, terminal retail is weak, and accounts receivable / inventory turnover slows down.
