\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 887 Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) )
Core conclusion
Event: the company issued the announcement on the main business conditions from January to February 2022. According to the preliminary accounting of the company, the company achieved a total operating revenue of about 21.5 billion yuan from January to February 2022, an increase of more than 15% over the same period of last year; The total profit was about 3.3 billion yuan, an increase of more than 20% over the same period last year.
The advantages of large single products are stable, “product innovation + brand strength construction” stimulates the growth potential of leading enterprises. In terms of products, from January to February 2022, the revenue share of key products such as Jindian, anmushi, jinlingguan, qiaolez, Zhen Xi, Changqing, meiyitian and Yili children’s cheese stick increased by 3PCT, and the revenue of jinlingguan increased by 30%, ranking the first in the industry. In terms of product innovation, it has launched a number of new products, such as “Jindian ultrafiltration milk”, “amushidandong strawberry”, “Chang light protein time”, “jinlingguansenamu organic milk powder” and “xujihuan thick milk ice cream”. In terms of brand strength, the company achieved continuous improvement of brand strength through Winter Olympics + spring promotion brand marketing, and the penetration rate of Yili products continued to remain the first in the industry. Among them, the market penetration rate in prefecture level cities and county-level cities increased by 0.6pct and 1.2pct, and the scale of consumer reach continued to rise. The raw milk cycle has been adjusted to the year-on-year decline range, the competition between the top two has slowed down, and the logic of improving profitability has been gradually realized. According to the fact that the company’s revenue increased by 15% from January to February of the year 22, we conservatively assume that the company’s revenue increased by 12-15% in March of the year 22. According to the data disclosed by the company, we deduce that the total profit of the company in March of the year 21 accounted for about 7.5% of the revenue. Assuming that the total profit of the company in March of the year 22 accounted for 7-8% of the revenue, it is estimated that the total interest rate / revenue of 22q1 is 12.70% – 13.06% (12.88%), Thus, it is estimated that the net interest rate of 22q1 of the company is expected to increase by 0.27-0.63pct (0.45pct). In addition, the price of raw milk has shown an inflection point since September 21 and has been adjusted to the year-on-year decline range since February 22. Happy to watch the cost side or milk price dividend this year. The logic of slowing down competition and improving profitability between the two giants has been gradually fulfilled.
Profit forecast: we estimate that the company’s revenue in 21-23 years will be 109 / 121.5/134.7 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 13% / 12% / 11%, and the profit will be 87 / 103 / 11.9 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 23% / 18% / 16%, corresponding to PE of 28.1 / 23.9 / 20.7x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: industry competition intensifies, food safety and raw material price fluctuations.
