\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 383 Shenzhen Xinyichang Technology Co.Ltd(688383) )
The company is a leading manufacturer of LED intelligent manufacturing equipment in China
① it has been deeply engaged in the LED solid crystal machine industry for 16 years, with leading technical strength in the industry. At present, the company has become a leading enterprise in the field of LED solid crystal machine and capacitor aging test intelligent manufacturing equipment in China. At the same time, with deep R & D strength and continuous technological innovation ability, the company has successfully entered the field of semiconductor solid crystal machine and lithium battery equipment. In addition, some core components of the company's intelligent manufacturing equipment products, such as drivers, high-precision reading heads, linear motors and voice coil motors, have been self-developed and self-produced. It is a rare intelligent manufacturing equipment enterprise with independent R & D and production capacity of core components in China.
② LED packaging core equipment and capacitor equipment work together, and the development of semiconductor equipment is effective. Customers are leading enterprises in the industry. With strong core technical capability and meticulous service system, the company has technical advantages in the field of LED Solid Crystal machines and is a leader in the field of LED Solid Crystal machines. Its customers include well-known Chinese manufacturers such as Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(002449) , Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing Co.Ltd(002384) , Shenzhen Mtc Co.Ltd(002429) and international well-known manufacturers such as Samsung and yioptoelectronics. In the field of capacitors, the company's customers include China's leading aluminum electrolytic capacitors Hunan Aihua Group Co.Ltd(603989) , Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co.Ltd(002484) and other well-known companies. In addition, in the field of semiconductors, the company's solid crystal equipment has been recognized by mainstream customers in the industry, including well-known companies such as crystal guide micro, canrui technology, Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300373) , Tongfu micro and solid technetium electronics.
③ the company's profitability is gradually improved. From 2017 to 2020, the company's operating revenue increased from 505 million yuan to 704 million yuan, with a CAGR of 11.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company increased from 52 million yuan to 108 million yuan, with a CAGR of 27.8%. In 2021, led and semiconductor market demand continued to improve, and the company's performance accelerated growth. According to the performance express, the company achieved an operating revenue of 1.197 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 69.90%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 231 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 115.07%. Driven by the improvement of self-made rate of parts and components and the rapid growth of revenue of mini led solid crystal machine and semiconductor solid crystal machine with high gross profit margin, the profitability of the company has been gradually improved. In the first three quarters of 20172020, the gross profit margin of the company's sales increased from 25.23% to 43.07%.
LED industry: Technology iteration comes to key nodes, and mini LED may bring subversion.
① the LED industry is growing steadily, and mini LED technology has iterated to a key node. With the decline of LED cost and price, the scale of LED market continues to expand, and the global LED output value increases steadily. Mini led refers to the LED device with chip size between 50-200um. Its application is usually divided into two solutions: direct display and backlight. Mini LED backlight can directly upgrade the LCD screen effect.
② compared with OLED, mini LED has the same display effect and avoids screen burning, screen flashing and other problems. DC dimming can still be used for LCD screen with direct down Mini LED backlight, so as to avoid screen burning, stroboscopic and other problems of OLED. Compared with mainstream OLED products, TCL flagship products are leading in terms of brightness, color gamut, resolution and service life, and the price is lower.
③ the commercial volume of mini ledrgb direct display is imminent, and major manufacturers are laying out their plans one after another. Mini ledrgb direct display has obvious advantages in large-size ultra-high definition display. Mini ledrgb direct display is far superior to the traditional LED screen with large point spacing in resolution, color contrast and zoning control, which makes the current application of large-size display screen gradually develop to mini led direct display.
Shenzhen Xinyichang Technology Co.Ltd(688383) : dual wheel drive of mini led and semiconductor solid crystal machine promotes the rapid development of the company.
① the company has been deeply engaged in the field of LED crystal fixing machine for many years and has become an absolute leader in the industry. Senior Engineer LED and GGII, the authoritative institutions in the LED industry, made preliminary statistics on the market share of Shenzhen Xinyichang Technology Co.Ltd(688383) related solid crystal machines in the research. The data show that Shenzhen Xinyichang Technology Co.Ltd(688383) has more than 70% of the market share of solid crystal machines in China, and the customer penetration rate has exceeded 90%.
② the volume of mini LED is imminent, and the company's solid crystal machine business is expected to benefit first. With the commercial popularity of mini led, the number of chips required increases exponentially. Calculated according to P1 (pixel spacing of 1mm), 1 million pixels are required for one square meter. Each pixel is composed of RGB three-color chips, that is, 3 million chips are required. Because the crystal fixing speed is relatively fixed, the increase in the number of chips directly stimulates the demand for crystal fixing machines.
③ semiconductor crystal fixing machine has been recognized by the industry and is expected to meet rapid development. Packaging and testing has become the most internationally competitive link in China's semiconductor industry chain and is growing steadily. According to the data of China Semiconductor Association, from 2015 to 2020, the scale of China's semiconductor packaging and testing market increased from 138.4 billion yuan to 251 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 12.64%. With the continuous growth of China's semiconductor packaging and testing market, there is a strong demand for packaging and testing equipment. Based on the accumulated technology in motion control and machine vision of LED solid crystal machine, the company expands to semiconductor solid crystal machine. The speed and performance of products have been recognized in the industry. Customers include crystal conduction micro, Tongfu micro, solid technetium electronics, Fuman electronics, etc., which are expected to usher in rapid development.
④ expand led and semiconductor wire bonding machines and create new growth points. Wire bonding machine and solid crystal machine are the relationship between the previous and subsequent processes, and have synergy with the company's solid crystal machine in technology, supply chain and customer resources. The company expands the wire bonding machine business through the acquisition of kaijiu, which is expected to create a new growth point. According to the investor survey minutes disclosed by the company on November 17, 2021, kaijiu wire bonding machine is in the customer verification stage. The LED wire bonding machine is expected to be launched in the first half of 2022 and the semiconductor wire bonding machine is expected to be launched in the second half of 2022.
⑤ the capacitor business is steady, and the layout of super capacitor equipment. The company's capacitor equipment products are mainly used in the production of aluminum electrolytic capacitors and have been recognized by Chinese leading enterprises such as Hunan Aihua Group Co.Ltd(603989) , Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co.Ltd(002484) and so on. The company has many years of cooperation with Chinese capacitor manufacturers, and the company has laid out super capacitor intelligent manufacturing equipment earlier, invested a lot of R & D personnel and funds in the field of super capacitor, and has relevant core technologies. It is expected to directly benefit from the development of super capacitor market in the future.
Profit forecast: the company has strong competitive strength in the field of solid crystal machine. With the development of miniled and other markets, the company will fully benefit. At the same time, based on the technology accumulated in LED crystal fixing machine, the company expands to semiconductor crystal fixing machine, led and semiconductor wire bonding machine, which is expected to create new growth points. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.197 billion yuan, 1.593 billion yuan and 2.005 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 231 million yuan, 305 million yuan and 422 million yuan respectively, corresponding to 40.37, 30.60 and 22.12 times of PE respectively. For the first time, the company will be rated as "overweight".
Risk tip: the overall recession risk of LED packaging industry; Risks of market development in new industries; Risk of product upgrading; Deviation risk of industry scale measurement; There is a risk that the information used in the research report is not updated in time.
