\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 689 Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) )
Event overview
The company released the performance express for 2021: after preliminary accounting, the revenue in 2021 was RMB 11.44 billion, a year-on-year increase of 75.7%, the net profit attributable to the parent was RMB 1.05 billion, a year-on-year increase of 66.4%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent was RMB 990 million, a year-on-year increase of 71.6%.
At the same time, the main operating data from January to February 2022 were released: after preliminary accounting, from January to February 2022, the company achieved a revenue of about 2.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 60%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was about 250 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 64%.
Analysis and judgment:
Performance bucked the trend and increased tier0.5% 5. The quantity and price of supporting equipment rise together
In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 11.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 75.7%, of which 2021q4 revenue was 3.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 65.0% and a month on month increase of + 24.4%. If the revenue growth rate from January to February 2022 (a year-on-year increase of + 60%) is linearly extrapolated, it is expected that the revenue in 2022q1 is expected to reach 3.88 billion yuan, a month on month increase of + 7.3%. We judge that the rapid growth of revenue mainly benefits from Tesla, Byd Company Limited(002594) , weixiaoli Rivian and other supporting projects of new energy customers at home and abroad.
In 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.05 billion yuan. If the goodwill impairment of 466509 million yuan is added back, the actual net profit attributable to the parent company reaches 1.09 billion yuan, which is at the center of the performance forecast (1.05-1.15 billion yuan), with a year-on-year increase of + 73.8%. Among them, the actual net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 is 340 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 40.1% and a month on month increase of + 14.8%. If it is linearly extrapolated according to the revenue growth rate from January to February 2022 (year-on-year increase of + 64%), It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022q1 will be 410 million yuan, a month on month increase of + 20.2%. We judge that the high increase in net profit attributable to the parent company mainly benefits from the rapid growth of revenue, and the increase in capacity utilization leads to the dilution of fixed expenses.
The company actively embraces new energy, continuously expands the product line related to electric intelligence, actively expands the global intelligent electric customer base, and explores tier0 Level 5 supporting mode, showing a trend of simultaneous increase in volume and price, and the performance is expected to continue to grow at a high level.
Shuangwei Qiqu Jianzhi global auto parts top
Customer +: strategically bind Tesla and the new forces of car manufacturing to enter the global supply system. The company has followed the growth of GM and Geely. At present, Tesla is strategically bound to start a new round of growth. At the same time, it has entered the global supply systems such as Ford, FCA, Daimler, BMW, Volkswagen, Audi, Honda and Toyota. In line with the change of Electric Intelligence in the industry, the company actively cooperates with rivian, Weilai, Xiaopeng, ideal and other new forces of head car manufacturing to explore tier0 Level 5 cooperation mode to provide customers with synchronous R & D and supply services of the whole product line.
Product +: "2 + 3" industrial strategy, comprehensive layout of electric intelligence. While maintaining China's leading position in the two traditional businesses of vehicle NVH damping system and vehicle acoustic package, the company has prospectively arranged the three core businesses of vehicle intelligent driving system, thermal management system and lightweight chassis system, including: 1) lightweight and high growth: the company's aluminum alloy lightweight chassis technology is leading in China, and formed a perfect layout of aluminum alloy + high-strength steel after the acquisition of fudona, At present, it has entered Tesla, Geely, Byd Company Limited(002594) , BAIC, great wall, Weilai, Weima and other supply chains. The aluminum alloy integrated vacuum casting chassis was approved by customers and began to be supplied in batches. The aluminum alloy casting welded chassis was approved by Ford, rivian and other customers and began to prepare for batch supply. 2) Intelligent driving system is waiting for power: the orders of electronic vacuum pump EVP are increasing rapidly, which is expected to gradually contribute significant increment; At present, the intelligent braking system IBS has been iterated to the fourth generation double redundancy scheme for automatic driving above L4 level. It carries out road test on Byd Company Limited(002594) , Geely and other models. At the same time, it also cooperates with famous foreign enterprises to carry out R & D and promotion in the field of electric logistics vehicles; The intelligent steering system is being promoted to many main engine manufacturers including Volkswagen. Intelligent cabin products such as electrically adjustable steering column, electric tailgate and seat massage system have been released and received formal orders from customers. 3) In the future, the company has successfully invested in the research and development of new energy, gas-liquid heat pump system and electronic expansion valve, and has become a new energy supply and management company in the future.
Investment advice
The company is the target of high performance elasticity of Tesla industrial chain and the most beneficial target of Geely industrial chain. With the industry-leading ability of customer expansion and product expansion, the company is expected to rise and become the leader of independent parts under the reform of electric intelligence. In view of the growth of the company's performance repair and lightweight, intelligent driving system and thermal management system with key customers such as Tesla and Geely, we adjusted the profit forecast: we raised the forecast of revenue of RMB 11.22/153.4/19.95 billion from 2021 to 2023 to RMB 11.44/172.5/22.85 billion, adjusted the forecast of net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 1.13/17.3/22.2 billion to RMB 1.05/18.2/2.45 billion, and adjusted EPS 1.5 The forecast of 06 / 1.67/2.10 is 0.95/1.65/2.22 yuan, corresponding to pe58 / 33 / 25 times of the closing price of 52.53 yuan on March 14, 2022, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Tesla's sales volume is lower than expected; Geely's sales volume recovered less than expected; Increased competition; Rising raw material costs, etc.
