Long term growth, layout when questioning
The marketization of new energy leads to the improvement of growth certainty. It is expected that there will be more than five to eight times the penetration rate of electric vehicles and photovoltaic in the future, and the overvalued value of the industry is expected to remain for a long time. At present, there are short-term layout time points: the expectation of U.S. policy support is questioned, and the valuation has reached a reasonable position.
Look at the periodicity in the medium term, and layout when supply and demand deteriorate
The new energy industry has a supply and demand cycle of about five years. In 2022, it will enter the third stage of the upward cycle. In the next year, there will be three directions: return to core growth, post cycle and new technology. At present, there is a short-term layout time point: short-term mismatch between supply and demand of lithium carbonate. Risk point: the real deterioration of supply and demand is expected from 2023 to 2024; Exceeding the expected point: the permeability accelerates upward and lengthens the cycle.
In the short term, the volatility is arranged at the low point of volume and price
From the perspective of short-term volume and price, the low level of photovoltaic is more clear. At present, there is a short-term layout time point: the component price has dropped to a relatively low point, leading to the positive feedback of downstream demand, which is expected to be reflected in January 2022. It is suggested to configure downstream power stations and components, new technologies and leaders in all links in turn; The upper limit point of price increase of lithium battery is expected to appear in the first quarter of 2022, and the growth will be further highlighted after the limit value. It is suggested to arrange according to the growth barriers (lithium battery, lithium, diaphragm, etc.).
High barriers (tight balance between supply and demand), post cycle and new technologies are the focus in the future
Lithium battery industry chain: the company’s production expansion will accelerate from 2021, and it will be in the stage of re matching supply and demand for more than a year in the future. We believe that the industry investment has entered the third stage: (a) return to long-term growth, pay attention to the links with high barriers, the lithium battery leader is the core, and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) benefit; (b) In terms of post cycle, attention should be paid to the diffusion of the landscape of the new energy vehicle industry chain. Energy storage, hydrogen energy, motors, equipment, charging and replacement, and the integration of traditional vehicle parts and electrification are the directions that need to be paid attention to, Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) , Shenzhen Center Power Tech.Co.Ltd(002733) , Far East Smarter Energy Co.Ltd(600869) benefit; (c) In terms of new technologies, pay attention to the cost reduction brought by the product innovation of leading companies, such as flat wires, high-voltage systems, 4680 batteries, Gold Cup Electric Apparatus Co.Ltd(002533) , Zhejiang Wanma Co.Ltd(002276) and so on.
Clean energy industry chain: from the demand side, the large clean energy base is strongly supported by policies and is expected to become the main force of new installed capacity in the future. We believe that the release of high-quality supply side and the improvement of product cost performance are the core of the sustainable growth of the industry. We are optimistic about the high growth of demand in 2022, mainly focusing on three investment opportunities: (a) we are optimistic about the opportunities of power station development market + power market reform, Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) and other companies; (b) Optimistic about the terminal links such as components and inverters with good competition pattern, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) and so on; (c) In the medium and long term, poly GCL energy, Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) etc. will benefit from the good supply and demand of thermal field, adhesive film and other auxiliary material industrial chains, the innovation at the industrial end (heterojunction, granular silicon, etc.) and the improvement of the market share of advantageous leading companies.
Risk tips: competition intensifies, product prices fall, and demand is less than expected
