Investment view: it is expected that the off-season will not be light in the first quarter, and the beta of the plate will gradually appear
With the increase of installed economy driven by the decline of silicon wafer price again, the production scheduling of photovoltaic plate has improved month on month, and the increase of overseas demand resonates with the stock market of China's Spring Festival. It is expected that the operating rate of the industrial chain will continue to improve. With the gradual production of silicon material capacity next year, the demand next year is expected to exceed expectations, thus driving the growth of beta market in photovoltaic sector. We rated the electrical equipment industry as "overweight". It is suggested to lay out the following main lines: 1) the integrated leader is expected to usher in profit restoration: Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) ; 2) Auxiliary material links with high certainty: inverter Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , etc; Photovoltaic glass faucet Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Xinyi solar energy, etc; Bracket faucet Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) ; Diamond wire Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) , Henan Hengxing Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002132) ; Glue film and upstream faucet Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Levima Advanced Materials Corporation(003022) etc; 3) Battery cell links for profit improvement: Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) etc; 4) Other subdivision faucets Poco Holding Co.Ltd(300811) , Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) , Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co.Ltd(003038) , Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , etc.
Industry trends: {30011.8} 44.6 billion investment was settled in Inner Mongolia, and Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) 300000 tons of photovoltaic EVA was put into operation.
Industry policy: 1) SASAC issued a notice that the proportion of renewable energy installed by central enterprises will reach more than 50% by 2025. 2) The power generation plan of conventional photovoltaic power stations in Inner Mongolia in 2022 is 600H in East Mongolia and 900H in West Mongolia. 3) Shandong issued the county wide roof distributed pilot scheme, 20GW in 2025 and 30GW in 2030.
Company dynamics: 1) Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) 44.65 billion investment settled in Baotou, Inner Mongolia. 2) Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) 300000 tons of photovoltaic EVA was put into operation. 3) Central announced the latest silicon wafer quotation, with a general reduction of 0.05-0.71 yuan / wafer. 4) PetroChina 4.5gw and CGN 128mw components won the bid, and Jingke won nearly 2gw. 5) Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) it is proposed to sell 81 industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic power station project companies at a transfer price of 1.036 billion yuan.
Industrial chain tracking: the decline of silicon materials narrowed, and the output of module batteries improved month on month
Silicon material: this week, the average transaction price of single crystal re feeding fell to 232500 yuan / ton, down 2.56% month on month; The average transaction price of single crystal compact fell to 230600 yuan / ton, down 2.37% month on month, narrowed compared with the previous week. We believe that the price of silicon material has a limited decline in the short term, or it is expected to stop falling and stabilize. The main focus is the production of new capacity after the Spring Festival. Silicon wafer: the average transaction price of 158 / 182 / 210mm single crystal silicon wafer was 5 yuan / 5.7 yuan / 8 yuan respectively, the same as last week; The average transaction price of 166mm monocrystalline silicon wafer was 4.95 yuan per wafer, up 1% month on month. It is expected that the operating rate of the enterprise will gradually rise, and the price of silicon wafer will gradually stabilize with the price of silicon material. However, due to the large expansion of silicon wafer production, if the silicon material continues to decline, the possibility of further price war cannot be ruled out. Battery: the average transaction price of 158 / 166 / 182 / 210mm battery is 1.12 yuan / W, 1.05 yuan / W, 1.08 yuan / W and 1.05 yuan / W respectively, which is the same as last week. It is expected that the price of battery chips will remain stable and maintain a certain profit with the price reduction of silicon chips. Components: the average transaction price of 166mm components was 1.85 yuan / W, down 2.6% month on month; The average transaction price of 182mm components was 1.88 yuan / W, down 2.6% month on month; The average transaction price of 210mm components was 1.88 yuan / W, down 2.6% month on month. The falling prices of silicon materials and silicon wafers have brought a strong falling price atmosphere, while the actual price transmission of the industrial chain still needs some time, and the component prices are expected to continue to be revised downward.
Looking forward to the follow-up, on the supply side, the production scheduling of component manufacturers was increased to 70-80% in January, and the operating rate of battery chips was also benefited, which was correspondingly increased to 60-70%. At the same time, some silicon material capacity will be released in the first quarter, which will push the silicon material price down further after it is put into operation. On the demand side, after the holiday, foreign demand took the lead in starting, superimposing China's stock market before the Spring Festival. The first quarter is expected to be not light in the off-season,
We are optimistic about the continuous improvement of photovoltaic industry chain in the future.
Market performance last week: the power equipment sector increased by 3.40%, ranking seventh.
Last week's market review: the power equipment sector increased by 3.40% (up - 7.37% last week), ranking seventh (a total of 28 primary sub industries), 2.80 percentage points compared with the Shanghai Composite Index and 3.01 percentage points compared with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index.
Among the constituent stocks of the industry (Shenwan power equipment) last week, the top five weekly gainers and losers were Capital Airlines high tech (+ 52.37%), Tongling shares (+ 19.78%), goodway (+ 18.66%), founder motor (+ 18.46%) and jiangte motor (+ 17.75%), and the last five weekly gainers and losers were Shanghai Holystar Information Technology Co.Ltd(688330) (- 11.89%), Nanwang Technology (- 12.17%) Zhejiang Grandwall Electric Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603897) (- 13.29%), Beijing Yupont Electric Power Technology Co.Ltd(688597) (- 14.42%), and Lanzhou Greatwall Electrical Co.Ltd(600192) (- 20.97%).
Risk statement
Risk of sharp price reduction of products, sharp rise in raw material prices, lower than expected downstream demand, increased industry competition, systemic risk of the market, failure of recommended companies to meet expectations, etc.
