Event: Kerui announced that the sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises in December 2021 were 342 billion yuan, 879.3 billion yuan and 1090.6 billion yuan respectively in December of the top 10, top 50 and top 100, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 21.39%, – 32.91% and – 37.98% respectively. The cumulative sales from January to December were 41092 billion yuan, 10438.4 billion yuan and 12631.8 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 1%, – 2% and – 4% respectively. (Note: Evergrande is temporarily excluded from the top 10, three and four real estate enterprises)
In December, it increased month on month, and most real estate enterprises decreased year-on-year. Kerui announced that the sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises in December 2021 were 342 billion yuan, 879.3 billion yuan and 1090.6 billion yuan in December, respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 21.39%, – 32.91% and – 37.98% respectively, and a month-on-month change of + 18.07%, + 25.22% and + 28.94%. Top 10 real estate enterprises have obvious differentiation. China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Greenland Holdings Corporation Limited(600606) and Shimao Group all decreased by more than 50% in a single month, respectively – 54.52%, – 71.23% and – 73.33%. Country garden and China Resources land increased by + 61.17% and + 16.05% respectively. The monthly growth rates of rongchuang China, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , CNOOC real estate and Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) were – 12.80%, + 1.24%, – 0.23% and – 31.91% respectively. Among the top 11-20 real estate enterprises, the year-on-year growth rates of Longhu group and China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) were + 42.72% and + 36.87% respectively; Other real estate enterprises decreased year-on-year, Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) decreased the most by – 66.37%, Xuhui group, Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Zhongnan land and Jinke group also decreased by more than 30%, respectively – 30.60%, – 35.44%, – 50.22% and – 54.23%. The cumulative sales from January to December were 41092 billion yuan, 10438.4 billion yuan and 12631.8 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of – 1%, – 2% and – 4% respectively, with changes of – 2.59, – 4.29 and – 5.59 PCT respectively compared with the cumulative growth rate from January to November. Among the top 35 real estate enterprises, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of real estate enterprises has obvious positive and negative differentiation. From the cumulative data, the sales growth of real estate enterprises continued to slow down.
The cumulative growth rate of the first and second tier real estate enterprises decreased less than that of the third and fourth tier real estate enterprises, and the cumulative growth rate of key real estate enterprises decreased compared with that from January to November. In terms of structure, the sales growth rate of the first, second and third and fourth tier real estate enterprises in a single month was – 17.52% and – 7.92% respectively, the month on month growth rate was + 28.04% and – 4.78% respectively, and the cumulative growth rate was – 1% and – 14% respectively, which was 3.82 and 1.56 PCT lower than the cumulative growth rate from January to November. The year-on-year growth rate of key real estate enterprises we focus on in a single month was – 23.91%, the month on month growth rate was + 18.87%, and the cumulative growth rate was – 6%, 2.82 PCT less than the cumulative growth rate from January to November.
The year-on-year growth rate of sales unit price in December was lower than that in November, and the equity ratio decreased slightly. According to Kerui data, the monthly sales area of the top 10, top 30 and top 50 in December was 23.139 million square meters, 43.76 million square meters and 58.19 million square meters respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 19.46%, 28.53% and 27.52%. The growth rate was + 28.18, + 20.21 and + 17.96 percentage points respectively compared with November, and the month on month growth rate was + 11.51%, + 17.78% and + 26.19% respectively; In December, the sales unit prices of the top 10, top 30 and top 50 in a single month were 14782 yuan / m2, 14825 yuan / m2 and 15111 yuan / m2 respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 4.46%, – 7.28% and – 4.53%, respectively – 41.55%, – 31.85% and – 27.82 percentage points higher than the growth rate in November, with a month-on-month growth rate of 5.88%, 2.28% and – 5.21% respectively. The average sales price in December decreased year-on-year. The average sales price of TOP10 companies in December was 14934.7 yuan / flat, with a year-on-year change of – 5.15%. The average monthly sales price of 6 companies in TOP10 increased year-on-year. In December, the average sales price of country garden was 8570.61 yuan / Ping, an increase of 899.73 yuan / Ping year-on-year; The average sales price of China Evergrande was 8149.61 yuan / Ping, a year-on-year decrease of 432.09 yuan / Ping; The average sales price of Vanke was 17021.35 yuan / square meter, with a year-on-year increase of 2297.56 yuan / square meter; The average sales price of rongchuang China was 13387.14 yuan / Ping, a year-on-year increase of 180.50 yuan / Ping; Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) the average sales price was 16784.67 yuan / square, an increase of 1403.63 yuan / square year on year; The average sales price of CNOOC real estate was 19708.03 yuan / Ping, with a year-on-year increase of 119.61 yuan / Ping; China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) the average sales price was 19864.56 yuan / Ping, a year-on-year decrease of 228.03 yuan / Ping; Greenland Holdings Corporation Limited(600606) the average sales price was 11023.84 yuan / Ping, a year-on-year decrease of 4434.20 yuan / Ping, and the average sales price of China Resources land was 13241.74 yuan / Ping, a year-on-year decrease of 9582.82 yuan / Ping. In terms of equity ratio, the equity ratios of the top 10, top 30 and top 50 in December were 75.25%, 70.09% and 69.15% respectively, with year-on-year changes of – 1.63, + 0.25 and – 1.71 PCT respectively, and month on month changes of + 3.96, + 2.57 and – 0.10 PCT respectively. In terms of sales target, based on the cumulative completion from January to December, 29 real estate enterprises have disclosed the sales target for 2021. Except Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) reducing the sales target to 88% of the sales in 2020, the other real estate enterprises have increased the sales target based on the sales in 2020, of which 17 real estate enterprises have increased by more than 10%, of which Greentown China has the highest increase, reaching 44%. The average completion rate of the real estate enterprises that have disclosed the sales target is 90.92%, 17 real estate enterprises have completed more than 90%, and three real estate enterprises have completed the annual sales target, of which Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) has the highest completion rate of 140.9%.
Investment suggestions: Recently, the management has made intensive statements to guide the industry towards a more standardized stable and healthy development period in the medium and long term, short-term policy adjustments to alleviate pessimistic sales expectations, affordable rental housing to hedge against the decline of potential development investment, and promote the industry to return to a virtuous circle and healthy development. The future industry beta depends on the adjustment of industry structure, the pace of capacity clearing and the strength of policy support; Alpha focuses on the repair of the balance sheet and profit margin of key real estate enterprises by M & A, the accuracy of countercyclical plus leverage, and the long-term excavation of the value of housing scenarios. Suggestions: 1) high quality leaders: Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , rongchuang China, Vanke A, Longhu group, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) ; 2) High quality growth: Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Xuhui holding group; 3) High quality property management: Country Garden service, xinchengyue service, Greentown service, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , poly property.
Risk warning: industry credit risk spread; The downward cycle of industry sales begins; Administrative regulation remained high-pressure, and the pilot strength of real estate tax exceeded expectations
