Spot is in short supply, and the price of lithium carbonate has accelerated
At the end of the year, the stock market pushed up the price of lithium salt and accelerated the upward trend. During the week, the spot price of battery grade lithium carbonate reached 277500 yuan / ton, an increase of 22500 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%, and the price of battery grade lithium hydroxide reached 225000 yuan / ton, an increase of 20000 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%. According to SMM information, the shipments of upstream and traders manufacturers are decreasing, but the quotation increases significantly. Although the downstream stock mood is heavy near the end of the year, most upstream orders are basically signed in January, and the signing volume is expected to decrease significantly before December 31. In 2022, Qinghai may open its supply, but the quotation may remain high. It is expected that the trading volume will increase in early January, and the price may rise significantly.
Lithium salt industry wide inventory fell
According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, the output of lithium carbonate in China from January to November 2021 was 202200 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 34.8%. In November, the output was 20400 tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 38% and a month on month increase of + 3%. In terms of import and export, 4094 tons were imported in November 2021, with a year-on-year increase of – 40% and a month on month increase of – 60%; In November 2021, the net import was 3414 tons, with a year-on-year increase of – 45.5% and a month on month increase of – 65.4%. Lithium salt supply and demand is tight, and inventory continues to fall. During the week, the inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 319 tons, with a month on month decrease of – 5.9%; During the week, the inventory of lithium hydroxide decreased by 11 tons, with a month on month decrease of – 2.7%.
The downstream boom continued, pushing up the demand for lithium salt
According to the data of China Automobile Association, the output of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in mid November 2021 was 457000, with a year-on-year increase of + 131.3% and a month on month increase of + 15%. According to the data of China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance, China’s power battery output in November 2021 was 28.23gwh, a year-on-year increase of + 121.8% and a month on month increase of + 12.4%; Among them, the output of ternary battery was 10.39gwh, with a year-on-year increase of + 42.5% and a month on month increase of + 12.9%; The output of lithium iron phosphate battery is 17.8 GWH, with a year-on-year increase of + 229.2% and a month on month increase of + 12%. It is expected that the demand side will continue to be strong in 2022.
Industry rating and investment strategy
Lithium resources will still be in short supply in 2022, and enterprises mastering lithium resources will fully benefit. The lithium industry will usher in a dividend period of profit and market scale growth. Enterprises that master upstream resources and have sufficient capital and technology to expand production capacity will usher in a period of rapid development. Give the industry an “overweight” rating.
Recommendation Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) : lithium resource layout leader with strong cost control ability. Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) : grasp the global high-quality salt lake and spodumene mineral resources with great development potential. Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) : independently develop the technology of adsorption and lithium extraction, and jointly promote the growth of the enterprise with potassium fertilizer and lithium salt. Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) : sitting in Zabuye Salt Lake, lithium development will speed up. It is recommended to pay attention to Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Sichuan New Energy Power Company Limited(000155) , Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) and other subjects.
Risk statement
Risk warning: the re production and production progress of lithium mine in Western Australia and Salt Lake in South America exceeded expectations; Lithium battery demand growth is less than expected; The performance of the recommended listed company is less than expected; Market systemic risk.
