Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (601012)
The company issued the convertible bond raising letter, and the two projects fully introduced the mature technology of n-type high-efficiency single crystal battery.
The company issued a prospectus for convertible corporate bonds on December 31, 2021, and plans to raise 7 billion yuan to invest in the annual output of 15gw high-efficiency single crystal battery project, the annual output of 3gw single crystal battery manufacturing project and supplement working capital. The announcement shows that the mature technology of the next generation n-type high-efficiency single crystal battery independently developed by the company will be fully introduced, which will effectively help the company fully grasp the technological transformation trend of the next generation high-efficiency battery. We maintain our previous expectations. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 11.612, 14.704 and 18.855 billion, EPS will be RMB 215, 2.72 and 3.48, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 40.2, 31.7 and 24.7 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
The development potential of n-type battery technology is great, and the superposition of multiple advantages continues to reduce the cost, resulting in an increase in the market share.
At present, the mass production conversion efficiency of mainstream PECR batteries in the market is close to the limit of 24%, while the technical process of n-type single crystal battery is simple, and the mass production efficiency can reach about 26%. It has great development potential in the future, and has the advantages of high double-sided rate, low temperature coefficient, no light attenuation, good weak light performance and large power generation efficiency, but its cost is high at present, For example, the single chip consumption of low-temperature silver paste of hjt battery has increased to 223.3mg. In the future, measures such as improving printing technology, increasing the number of main grids and reducing grid line width will effectively help n-type battery technology become the next generation mainstream battery technology after relay perc technology, and the market share will gradually dominate.
Expand the production of n-type battery to make up for the capacity gap and ensure the integrated competitive advantage of upstream and downstream of the company.
Over the years, the company has mature technical reserves in n-type high-efficiency batteries, and the battery R & D achievements have repeatedly brushed Shanghai New World Co.Ltd(600628) records. In 2021, the company's own battery capacity and component capacity continued to mismatch, and the annual capacity gap had reached 20.4gw. CPIA predicted that the market demand for n-type high-efficiency batteries would reach about 100gw in 2025. At present, the capacity of n-type high-efficiency batteries in the industry is small, and there is a large demand gap in the future. Based on its own technical advantages, the company continued to maintain high-intensity R & D investment, In 2021, the conversion efficiency of the company's p-type, n-type single crystal TOPCON and n-type hjt batteries simultaneously set three world records. The active layout of the n-type high-efficiency battery capacity project can effectively make up for the capacity gap and further enhance the integrated competitive advantage.
Risk tip: the installed capacity of photovoltaic is less than expected, the promotion of n-type technology is less than expected, the industrial policy changes, and the competition in photovoltaic market intensifies.
