China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) (601888)
1、 Event overview
According to the official microblog of Haikou Meilan International Airport, Meilan Airport is expected to have 462 inbound and outbound flights and 62016 passengers on December 31, 2021, which has gradually approached the average level at the end of 2020 (67000 passengers per day in ten days at the end of 2020). According to the calculation of the data source, Meilan Airport transported 1448900 passengers in December 2021, up 26.33% month on month compared with 1146900 passengers in November 2021, and the passenger flow rebounded significantly.
2、 Analysis and judgment
If the passenger flow on New Year's day in 2022 and Hainan passenger flow in the first quarter continue to recover, it may boost the company's performance
The number of passengers transported by Haikou Meilan Airport is highly correlated with the overall passenger flow in Hainan. With the arrival of new year's day and Spring Festival, Hainan will usher in the traditional peak tourism season, and the passenger flow is expected to continue to increase. The offline tax-free business of China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) may benefit from the overall recovery of Hainan tourism market.
China's ability to prevent and control outbreaks has been steadily improved, and the impact of local epidemic control on passenger flow in Hainan may be gradually weakened
In the third quarter of 2021, multiple regions in China broke out continuously, and covid-19 cases occurred in Hainan, which led to an obvious decline in passenger flow in Hainan and the offline demand of China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) was also restrained. At present, the Chinese government's ability to prevent and control sudden epidemics is improving, and the impact of regional epidemics on the overall consumption environment of the country is decreasing. Taking Xi'an in December 2021 as an example, the epidemic in Xi'an has led to closed management in the region, but the closed management in Xi'an has not had a significant impact on consumption and tourism in other parts of the country, The passenger flow in Hainan is still recovering steadily. Therefore, we believe that the improvement of local epidemic control capacity will gradually reduce the impact of the epidemic on Hainan passenger flow and China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) Island tax-free business.
In 2022, the valuation benchmark will be switched, and China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) is currently at a historical valuation low
2022 has arrived, and the current valuation benchmark is gradually switching. According to wind's consistent expectation, the net profit attributable to parent company of China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) may reach 14.593 billion yuan in 2022. Based on the closing market value of 428.4 billion yuan in 2021, the dynamic PE of China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) in 2022 may be 29.36x. By observing the China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) PE band (TTM) of 3 and 5 years, we can find that the minimum dynamic PE values during this period are 28.19x and 25.14x respectively. Therefore, China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) is currently in the position of historical valuation and has configuration value.
The "14th five year plan" for China's trade development was officially issued, and the tax-free industry welcomed the good again
On December 31, 2021, the "14th five year plan for China's trade development" formulated by 22 departments including the Ministry of Commerce was officially issued. The "plan" pointed out that governments at all levels and competent units should actively cultivate new consumption and encourage the development of consumption such as customization, experience, intelligence and fashion. We will improve the policy of duty-free shops in the city and plan to build a number of duty-free shops with Chinese characteristics. The tax-free industry welcomes the good again, China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) as the leading tax-free industry, is expected to accelerate its development under the guidance of the "plan".
3、 Investment advice
At present China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) the competition pattern, supply chain advantage and business model have not changed, and the competition pattern of the track has not been destroyed. We believe that the epidemic has not had a great impact on the profit logic. As long as the passenger flow in Hainan recovers in the fourth quarter, the company's Q4 revenue and profit are worth looking forward to. The peak season of the first quarter of 2022 is approaching, and the medium free long-term value will not decrease. Considering the impact of the online shopping festival in November on offline shopping, we conservatively predict that the net profits from 2021 to 2023 will be 10.9 billion, 14.6 billion and 17.9 billion respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 77.6%, 33.9% and 22.5% respectively, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
4、 Risk tips:
The epidemic situation is repeated, and the macroeconomic development is less than expected
