Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) (002597)
Event: the company released the performance forecast for 2021: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 930-1150 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 29.43% - 60.05%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 798-1042 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 39.99% - 82.80%. In the fourth quarter alone, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 217-437 million yuan, an increase of - 20.8% - 59.49% month on month.
comment:
The new capacity launch superimposed on the upward price, and the performance growth was in line with expectations. The performance growth is mainly due to three reasons (1) the project with an annual output of 5000 tons of sucralose is put into operation, the capacity load is gradually full and the contribution performance is effectively released. (2) The company raised the sales price of food additives such as sweeteners and spices. According to Baichuan information, from August 1 to December 31, the quotation of sucralose reached 480000 yuan, an increase of 134.15%; Ansaimi's quotation reached 95000 yuan / ton, an increase of + 53.23%; Methyl maltol was quoted to 150000 yuan / ton, an increase of + 57.89%, and ethyl maltol was quoted to 155000 yuan / ton, an increase of + 82.35%. (3) Thanks to the effective control of the epidemic in China and the increased demand for bulk chemicals, the average sales price of some bulk chemical products of the company increased over the same period of last year.
The prosperity of sucralose is expected to continue, injecting growth momentum into the company. On the supply side, since 2011, the price of sucralose has fallen sharply, the outbreak of the epidemic has accelerated, and the backward production capacity of the industry has been cleared. At present, only Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) , Kangbao biochemical and other enterprises can stabilize production. According to the latest document of the general office of the Ministry of ecological environment, sucralose is a "two high" industry. With the dual control of energy consumption and the promotion of environmental protection policies, the supply of the industry will be orderly into a high probability event in the future. On the demand side, thanks to the rapid penetration of sugar free drinks and the iteration of sweetener product structure, the demand for high-quality Sweetener Sucralose increased better. According to the data of customs and Baichuan information, the export volume of sucralose in November was 1065.28 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 52.87% and a month on month increase of 19.99%; From January to November, the total export volume of sucralose was 9489.51 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 30.32%. On the cost side, according to Zhuo Chuang information, the price of DMF is 16500 yuan / ton; According to the business society, the price of thionyl chloride is 4400 yuan / ton, and the cost is supportive.
Dingyuan base may become a new growth pole, "carbon neutralization" helps the company grow. As the world's manufacturing factory, China has an arduous task of "carbon peak and carbon neutralization", and the traditional chemical enterprises based on fossil energy and petroleum products may be constrained. As a renewable energy, promoting the resource utilization of biomass is an important starting point to realize "carbon neutralization". Based on chemistry and biotechnology, the company builds a whole industry chain with biomass as raw materials in Dingyuan base. Among them, biomass cogeneration power generation, extending furfural to methylfuran ammonium salt and other products are gradually put into operation. In the future, the company is expected to use biomass as raw material to continue to enrich food additives, flavors and fragrances and bio based new materials. With the ultimate cost advantage, Dingyuan base will become the second growth pole of the company.
Profit forecast: we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to be RMB 1.04/15.1/1.72 billion respectively, corresponding to 28 times, 19 times and 17 times of PE, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: product prices fall, production capacity is lower than expected, and raw materials are at great risk
