Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (600519)
event
On December 31, the company issued an announcement on production and operation. It is expected to achieve a total revenue of 109 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 11.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.3%. Among them, the total revenue of 21q4 was 31.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 14.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14%.
Business analysis
The performance is in line with expectations, and the volume and price can rise in 22 years. 1) Maotai achieved a revenue of 93.2 billion yuan in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of + 9.9%; Among them, Q4 revenue was 28.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14%, and the growth rate was significantly improved month on month. We expect that in 21 years, the sales volume of Maotai liquor will be 35500 tons, with an increase of medium and low single digits; The price increase is in the large single digits, and the channel reform drives the ton price upward. Looking forward to next year, considering that the output of base liquor in 18 years is + 16% year-on-year, the input is expected to increase significantly; Superimposed channel reform and price marketization, the volume and price can rise together in 22 years. 2) In 21 years, the revenue of series liquor was RMB 12.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 26.1%; Among them, Q4's revenue was 3.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 2%. It is expected that most of it will be driven by price rise, and the pace of volume delivery will slow down. 3) The net interest rate attributable to the parent company remained unchanged for 21 years, Q4 + 0.8pct year-on-year, mainly due to the upgrading of product structure.
The production target of Maotai base liquor was exceeded, and the production capacity was put into operation steadily. In 21 years, the output of Maotai Liquor / series base liquor was 56500 / 28200 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 12.5% / + 13.1%; The target set at the beginning of the year was 553 / 29000 tons, and the production of Maotai base liquor exceeded the target; During the 14th Five Year Plan period, a series of wine technical transformation projects will be completed successively, and the production capacity will be put into operation gradually. At present, the gap between supply and demand in Maotai liquor market is still high, and the production of Maotai base liquor is higher than expected, laying a solid foundation for medium and long-term market supply.
Weaken the game of short-term price increase and pay attention to long-term market-oriented reform. Recently, Maotai issued some payment notices for the Spring Festival, and Q1 payment was completed for some channels. We believe that the current wholesale price of sanfei is 2750 yuan, the in vitro profit is still rich, and the reform pace is firm after the new management takes office (for example, canceling non-standard and Feitian unpacking, transferring 800 tons from the marketing group to the traditional distribution channel and introducing digital marketing). The recovery of in vitro profit is still the long-term direction. In the context of 22 years of heavy volume, the performance is expected to accelerate month on month. The launch of treasures and 1935 may contribute new elasticity, and the improvement of medium and long-term fundamentals is uncertain.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We expect that the revenue growth rate of the company in 21-23 years will be 11% / 15% / 16%, the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company will be 11% / 17% / 18%, the EPS will be 41.39/48.43/57.15 yuan, and the corresponding PE will be 50 / 42 / 36x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk statement
Macroeconomic downside risk, repeated epidemic risk, channel reform is less than predicted, and food safety problems.
