Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) (000568)
Event: Recently, the company held a general meeting of shareholders, which deliberated and adopted the
< Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) 2021 年限制性股票激励计划（草案）及其摘要>
The motion of the.
From a subregional perspective, the nationwide layout has been basically completed and has entered a new stage of development. For more than 6 years, the company has focused on the national cellar, from the return of the strong market to the deep cultivation of the weak market. The competitive advantage of traditional markets such as southwest and North China is obvious in the 1000 yuan price belt, and the consumption potential is increasingly strengthened. After years of cultivation, East China and central China markets have become the second brand in the 1000 yuan price band. Among them, the East China market has started rapidly, the market share with competitive products has narrowed from 1:20 to about 1:5, and the growth rate has not shown a downward trend. Since last year, the company has also increased investment in the South China market, and consumer cultivation is on the way. From southwest and North China to central and East China to South China, the company’s national territory is becoming clearer and clearer, and the Guojiao brand is moving from 10 billion to 10 billion.
In terms of brands, Guojiao takes advantage of the trend and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) is about to start. Independent operation of dual brands, dislocation competition and multi-point force. Guojiao brand has become the third brand in the industry from less than 1500 tons to more than 10000 tons. The brand has been established for 20 years. As a brand “newcomer”, Guojiao brand is young and energetic like the team of Laojiao. In addition, the price difference between Guojiao and competitive products has narrowed from 15% in 2015 to 5% at present. Recently, the ex factory price has increased by 70 yuan and the terminal price is 1000 yuan. After Guojiao is on the right track, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) brand strength is imminent. The price of Tequ has increased from 120 yuan to 280 yuan in six years. The price of Tequ will increase by 40 yuan this time and 300 yuan next year. In recent years, the price of Tequ is comparable to that of Maotai. At the same time, the product gradient of Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) is becoming more and more perfect. From Tequ time-honored brand and cellar age to Tequ 60, then to light bottle wine and 1952 brand, the company is more perfect in brand layout, and the production of new production capacity also escorts the brand rejuvenation of Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) .
According to the price band, the thousand yuan is extended downward, and the product line layout is becoming more and more perfect. In the next five years, the 600-100 yuan price band will take over the 300-500 yuan price band to become a large-scale price band, of which the 1000 yuan price band Guojiao has become a 10 billion single product, moving towards the new 10 billion; The price of 600 yuan takes Tequ version 60, 1952, Guojiao low degree separation, and operates the food market independently. In addition, Tequ time-honored brands have transitioned from the price rise period to the volume period. Based on the price band of 300 yuan, they make up for the waist market. The mass consumption band of light bottle wine has also begun to develop. The company’s product line layout is becoming more and more perfect from high to low.
Profit forecast: we are optimistic about the volume and price trend of main products and the space for brand nationalization, and slightly raise the early profit forecast. We predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021-2023 will be 7.85/10.2/12.44 billion yuan (the original forecast was 7.70/96.3/11.26 billion yuan). The current stock price corresponds to 47 / 37 / 30 times the P / E ratio in 2021-2023, maintaining the “buy” rating and the target price of 300 yuan, Corresponding to 46 times PE in 2022.
Risk tip: the accelerated decline of the economy leads to lower demand than expected; Industry competition intensifies.
