Byd Company Limited(002594) (002594)
event
Yadi recently announced that the sales of new energy vehicles in November were about 90000, yoy + 242%, QoQ + 13%, and the cumulative sales from January to November were about 510000, yoy + 217%.
Key investment points: the leading sales of electric vehicles are strong, and the market share continues to expand
The company is a leading electric vehicle enterprise in the world. Its business covers electric vehicles, energy storage / power batteries, semiconductors and other fields. The industrial chain layout is complete and the core technology is independent and controllable. From January to November, the company's cumulative sales of new energy vehicles reached about 510000, yoy + 217%, with eye-catching performance. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in mid November was 450000, the sales volume of new energy vehicles from January to November reached 2.99 million, the market share of the company from January to November reached 17%, and the market share exceeded 20% in a single month in November. According to the data of the passenger Federation, the company ranked first in the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles from January to November 2021. Among the top 5 electric car sales in November, Qin, Han and dolphin ranked second, third and fifth respectively. In the retail ranking of electric SUV in November, song, Tang and Yuan ranked second, fourth and sixth respectively.
The company's product strength is strong, multi platform and multi series products realize in-depth layout, a number of heavy models are stuck in the golden track of electric vehicles, the production and sales data of Liangyan highlight the company's core competitive advantage, and the market share is expected to be further improved in the future. We believe that at present, the company's product power is in the upward cycle, and the sales volume is expected to further rise to a higher level in 2022, break through the 1 million mark and double the growth.
The external battery supply opens the ceiling, which is the icing on the cake for intelligent speed-up
The company's battery is externally supplied to open the ceiling. The company occupies the two golden tracks of power and energy storage. Battery technology, especially iron lithium technology, is in the leading position in the industry, and blade batteries are safe in the world. From January to November 2021, the company's cumulative installed capacity of power and energy storage batteries reached about 33gwh, including 4.88gwh in November, with eye-catching performance. In the field of energy storage, there will be strong demand in the industry in 2022, with high-speed growth and high certainty. The company is expected to continue to open up market space with high-quality battery performance; In the field of power, foreign suppliers such as FAW, Ford and Toyota are expected to continuously exceed expectations in customer development in the future, so as to open the ceiling. Overall, we expect the company's lithium battery shipments to more than double in 2022 driven by energy storage, external power supply and self supply.
Intelligent acceleration is the icing on the cake. Compared with the new forces, the company has temporarily insufficient intelligence, but it has significantly accelerated its intelligent layout. The company has successively invested in Suteng juchuang, a leading lidar enterprise, horizon, a supplier of intelligent driving chips, Huada Beidou in the field of high-precision maps, and established an intelligent driving joint venture with momenta. On the whole, in addition to continuously consolidating the basic plate of self supply of power battery, the company continues to develop international and Chinese customers. It is expected to make efforts in both energy storage and electric vehicle tracks, and the external supply of battery opens the ceiling. At the same time, the company's speed-up intelligent driving layout focuses on the intelligent coding of lidar, high-precision map, chip and algorithm. We believe that battery export and intelligent speed-up are expected to help the company achieve a second take-off.
Deeply cultivate the golden track of electric vehicles and continue to lead the industry to contribute to carbon neutralization
The company's forward-looking layout of electric vehicle track, and continued to stick to it and cross the cycle. The company continues to innovate itself, and has successively introduced international brand designers to create benchmark brands, such as Dynasty Series "Han" and so on. In terms of platform, DM-I platform and E platform 3.0 have been built successively to realize intensive production. In terms of industrial chain layout, the company aims to increase the independent control of core technologies and realize the import substitution of core technologies such as vehicle specification IGBT.
We believe that the company adheres to the electric vehicle track, actively embraces change, makes up for shortcomings, self innovates, actively welcomes the global wave of electric intelligence, and highlights its competitive advantage and leading position.
Profit forecast
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021, 2022 and 2023 will be 42 / 84 / 11.5 billion yuan, EPS will be 1.45/2.87/3.97 yuan, and the corresponding PE will be 185 / 93 / 68 times respectively. Based on the company's high-quality track, the leading position is prominent, the external battery supply opens the ceiling, the intelligent speed-up is icing on the cake, and the industrial layout is in line with the future development trend. We are optimistic about the medium and long-term upward development opportunities of the company and give a "recommended" rating.
Risk warning policy fluctuation risk; Downstream demand is lower than expected; The product price is lower than expected; Risk of deterioration of competition pattern; Capacity expansion and digestion were less than expected.
