\u3000\u30001. Recommended combination
\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 031、 Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) 、 Shanghai Friendess Electronic Technology Corporation Limited(688188) 、 Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) 、 Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) 、 Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) 、 Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) 、 Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group Co.Ltd(002353) Opt Machine Vision Tech Co.Ltd(688686) 、 Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) 、 Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) 、 Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) 、 Centre Testing International Group Co.Ltd(300012) 、 Shareate Tools Ltd(688257)
\u3000\u30002. Key investment points
Photovoltaic equipment: the hot field leader Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) released the performance forecast of the first quarter report, and the single ton profit of the hot field remained high Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) expects the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022q1 to be 190210 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 146% – 172%, exceeding the market expectation. The net profit deducted from non parent company in 2022q1 is 130145 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 75-95%. We expect the shipment volume of Q1 to be about 550 tons,
Excluding the impact of share based payment expenses and convertible bond interest, the corresponding single ton profit of deducting non attributable net profit is 298000325000 yuan. Recently, the market is worried that the supply of thermal field exceeds the demand, but we believe that with the lifting of silicon material supply constraints in the second half of 2022, the downstream grain production rate will gradually rise. The price reduction of thermal field is in line with the trend of cost reduction and efficiency increase in the photovoltaic industry. From 2018 to 2020, Jinbo’s single ton price of thermal field decreased from 1.35 million yuan to 950000 yuan. We think it is in line with the logic of continuous cost reduction and efficiency increase in the photovoltaic industry through technological progress. Due to technological cost reduction, Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) the gross profit margin in 20182020 has been maintained at more than 60%. We expect that the gold Expo will continue to guide the industrial chain to reduce costs. We expect the price of a single ton in 2022 to be about 700000 yuan and the profit of a single ton to be about 300000 yuan. Investment suggestions: focus on Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , and pay attention to Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) , Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) ; Recommended for wafer links Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) , Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) ; Component link recommendation Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) ; Recommend Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) . Lithium battery equipment: the installed capacity of power batteries increased year-on-year in February, and the first and second tier battery plants entered a period of rapid expansion of production capacity
Benefiting from the high prosperity of downstream new energy vehicles, in February 2022, the installed capacity of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) batteries totaled 13.7gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 145%. The power battery plant ushered in the acceleration of production expansion, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) to 2025, the planned capacity is expected to exceed 670gwh, Byd Company Limited(002594) planned capacity is expected to exceed 600gwh in 2025, Fengchao planned capacity is 600gwh in 2025, AVIC lithium battery planned capacity is 500gwh in 2025, Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) 200gwh is planned in 2023, Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) 300gwh is planned in 2025, and lithium battery equipment enters the seller’s market. Highlight the scale effect and focus on improving the profitability of lithium equipment manufacturers. Since October 2021, Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) & Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) & Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) have launched restricted stock incentive plans. From the perspective of performance objectives, the three pay attention to the improvement of profitability. We believe that the net interest rate of lithium battery equipment manufacturers will continue to increase under the effect of scale. Investment suggestions: recommend Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) , Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) , Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) , Shanghai Sk Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688155) , Shenzhen Hymson Laser Intelligent Equipments Co.Ltd(688559) , Suzhou Slac Precision Equipment Co.Ltd(300382) .
Construction machinery: the year-on-year sales volume of excavators in February was – 14%, better than expected, and the export remained strong
In February 2022, the sales volume of excavator industry was 24483 units, with a year-on-year increase of – 13.5%, higher than the previous CME expectation of – 22%. Among them, 7431 units were exported, with a year-on-year increase of + 97.7%, continuing to maintain a strong growth trend. Considering the recovery of overseas markets and the improvement of the global competitiveness of domestic brands, we expect the high growth momentum of subsequent exports to be sufficient to effectively smooth the cyclical fluctuations of the Chinese market.
The issuance of special bonds was accelerated, and attention was paid to the opportunities of the construction machinery sector under the background of steady growth. On March 5, the government work report of the State Council pointed out that the annual economic growth target is about 5.5%. We should put steady growth in a more prominent position and moderately advance infrastructure investment. From the perspective of reality, the issuance pace of special bonds in 2022 has been significantly accelerated. According to China Securities News, from January to February, a total of 877.5 billion yuan of new local government special bonds were issued across the country, accounting for more than 60% of the “early approval” quota. We expect that the new special bonds will be mainly issued in the first half of this year. It is suggested to pay attention to the opportunities of the construction machinery sector under the background of steady growth. Recommendations: Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) , Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) , Xcmg Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000425) , Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) .
General automation: the manufacturing boom continued to pick up, and the monthly data of general equipment improved
The manufacturing industry continued to pick up. In February 2022, the PMI index closed at 50.2%, up 0.1pct from the previous month and in the expansion range for four consecutive months. The fixed asset investment in industrial production and manufacturing was better than the market expectation. The industrial added value in December was + 4.3% year-on-year (November value + 3.8%), the cumulative completed amount of fixed asset investment in manufacturing from January to December was + 13.5% year-on-year, and the single month in December was + 11.8%. The manufacturing investment continued to improve.
Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , the monthly output data of machine tools have rebounded to the second highest point in 2021. In December, the industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) output was 35175 sets, with a year-on-year increase of + 15.1% and a month on month increase of + 10.2%; The output of metal cutting machine tools was 60000 units, with a year-on-year increase of + 5.8% and a month on month increase of + 25%, both of which have rebounded to the monthly second highest point in 2021. We judge that the main reasons are: 1) the boom of manufacturing industry rebounds; 2) Under the relief of export boom and core shortage, the two main downstream of automobile and 3C are in continuous recovery. Investment suggestion: reducer recommendation Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co.Ltd(688017) , Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co.Ltd(603915) ; Tool recommendations Zhuzhou Huarui Precision Cutting Tools.Co.Ltd(688059) , Shareate Tools Ltd(688257) , it is recommended to pay attention to Oke Precision Cutting Tools Co.Ltd(688308) ; Industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) recommended Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) ; Machine tool recommendations Kede Numerical Control Co.Ltd(688305) , Nantong Guosheng Intelligence Technology Group Co.Ltd(688558) , it is recommended to pay attention to Ningbo Haitian Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(601882) , Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited(300083) . Hydrogen energy equipment: policies drive the acceleration of hydrogen energy industry and focus on high-quality “shovel sellers”
With frequent favorable policies, China’s hydrogen energy industry is expected to usher in an acceleration period. Hydrogen is an ideal clean energy under China’s carbon neutralization goal. In recent years, government support policies have been frequent, and the industrial economy market is broad. The development of China’s hydrogen energy industry will usher in an accelerated period.
The hydrogen industry involves many core links, and the dawn of localization of core equipment appears. ① Hydrogen production: hydrogen production from fossil energy is the mainstream route in China. In the long run, hydrogen production from electrolytic water, which continues to reduce costs, is the general trend of the industry. As the core equipment for hydrogen production from electrolytic water, alkaline electrolyzer has basically realized localization; ② Hydrogen storage: on-board hydrogen storage is the largest segment of hydrogen storage market. At present, China’s on-board hydrogen storage is still dominated by 35MPa type III bottles. 70MPa type II and IV hydrogen storage bottles are technically difficult and are still dominated by overseas enterprises; ③ Hydrogenation: in the cost composition of the hydrogenation station, the equipment investment accounts for up to 45%. The core equipment hydrogen compressor and hydrogenation machine are still highly dependent on imports, and equipment localization is the most important means to reduce costs.
The fuel cell market is rapidly opening up, and local equipment companies are accelerating their layout. Fuel cell vehicles are in a period of rapid introduction. GGII predicts that the market scale of fuel cell industry will reach 23 billion yuan in 2023 and 70 billion yuan in 2025. At present, as the industry is still in the early stage of industrialization, the head shuffling phenomenon occurs frequently. With the technical route & determining the market demand and forming the scale effect, we are optimistic about the local enterprises with the first mover advantage to stand out. Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to Hangzhou Oxygen Plant Group Co.Ltd(002430) , Hefei Kewell Power System Co.Ltd(688551) , Moon Environment Technology Co.Ltd(000811) , Fujian Snowman Co.Ltd(002639) , Houpu Clean Energy Co.Ltd(300471) , Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) , Zhangjiagang Furui Special Equipment Co.Ltd(300228) , Shanghai Hanbell Precise Machinery Co.Ltd(002158) , etc.
Risk warning: the downstream fixed asset investment is less than the market expectation; Cyclical fluctuations in the industry; The impact of the epidemic continues.
