The penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles exceeded 21.8% in February, and the retail sales exceeded expectations
(1) the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in February slightly exceeded expectations, and the penetration rate increased to 21.8%. In February 2022, the retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.246 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.2% and a month on month decrease of - 40.0%, while the wholesale sales of new energy passenger cars reached 317000, with a year-on-year increase of + 189.1% and a month on month decrease of - 24.1%. The month on month decrease was less than that of previous years and significantly lower than that of oil vehicles; At the same time, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 21.8%, which is + 12.2pct compared with the penetration rate of 9.6% in February 2021 and further increased compared with the penetration rate of 20% of the high point in 2021. We believe that the trend of electrification is still strengthening.
(2) on the premise of no significant price increase in the upstream, we expect the sales volume to reach 1.25-1.4 million in the first quarter and 6 million in the whole year. At present, the sales of new energy vehicles are booming and the delivery cycle of manufacturers is long. We expect the retail sales of new energy vehicles in March to be between 450000 and 500000. We expect the total sales in the first quarter to be between 1.25-1.4 million. It is expected that the annual sales of new energy vehicles in 2022 is expected to reach 6 million.
(3) on the whole, based on the strong demand side of the industry, the price of upstream raw materials is expected to peak and fall. We believe that the growth environment of the industry will improve marginally in the next one or two months, and we should pay attention to investment opportunities in three directions: (a) core growth: invest according to the level of barriers (battery, lithium resources, diaphragm, negative electrode, etc.), Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) and other companies benefit; (b) Post cycle: companies such as Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) and others benefit from flexible investment according to the growth rate, such as energy storage, power exchange and other sectors; (c) New technology: invest according to the rate of penetration improvement, such as 4680, Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) and other companies benefit.
The cost of power battery increased, and the wholesale sales of low-end models in the depot decreased significantly
(1) increase in the proportion of plug-in hybrid vehicles: the cost of power batteries accounts for a higher proportion of the whole vehicle cost of new energy vehicles. The price rise of batteries is higher than that of plug-in hybrid vehicles. In February 2022, the wholesale sales volume of pure electric vehicles of new energy vehicles accounted for 77%, and the proportion of plug-in hybrid vehicles increased to more than 20% month on month -4pct.
(2) the proportion of class B new energy vehicles increased and the proportion of class A00 decreased: the profitability of low-end models is more sensitive to cost changes, which is confirmed by the sales data in February. A00 wholesale sales accounted for 28% of pure electric vehicles, a month on month -4pct; A0's wholesale sales accounted for 13% of pure electric vehicles, with a month on month -2pct increase in the cost of power batteries, compressing the profit space of low-end models, and A00's market share in electric vehicles declined. At the same time, the wholesale sales volume of type B vehicles accounted for 35% of pure electric vehicles, with a month on month increase of + 5pct, which was greater than that of other pure electric vehicles. It was in line with the rising cost of power batteries, which made the car factory adjust the production logic, further reduce the production quantity of low-cost models, and reduce the sales proportion of models with low gross margin and low added value.
Supportive policies and rising oil prices promote the development of new energy vehicles
(1) policies of the two sessions support the development of new energy vehicles: the government report of the two sessions in 2022 once again mentioned new energy vehicles, "continue to support the consumption of new energy vehicles" has a certain driving force for the new energy vehicle market in 2022; At the same time, the Ministry of industry and information technology clarified the support policies such as the extension of preferential purchase tax for new energy vehicles, optimized the "double points" management method, stabilized market expectations and supported the consumption of new energy vehicles. The price of lithium in the upstream continues to rise, and the guaranteed supply and price reduction has become the focus of the game between power battery manufacturers and the upstream. Superimpose the policy tendency of the government to stabilize the steady development of the new energy vehicle market, or stimulate the falling expectation after the top of the upstream, so as to straighten out the Growth Logic of new energy vehicles again.
(2) popular new cars get on the bus to promote sales volume. Nezha s, Xiaopeng G9, Weilai et5, ideal X01 and other models are equipped with intelligent vehicle components such as lidar and Hongmeng system respectively, and the price span is wide, which once again impacts the traditional fuel vehicle market. At the same time, China's gasoline has ushered in the "9 era", and there is no expectation of gasoline price drop in the short term, which is expected to affect consumers from oil vehicles to electric vehicles.
Risk tips: the upstream price increases continue, the competition between battery factories and material factories intensifies, and the downstream demand is less than expected
