The price of power coal pit mouth rose by a large margin. As of March 11, the pithead price of Shaanxi Yulin power lump coal (q6000) was 1140.0 yuan / ton, up 170.0 yuan / ton on a weekly basis and 645 yuan / ton on a year-on-year basis; The pit mouth price of sticky coal (including tax) (q5500) in the southern suburb of Datong was 1015.0 yuan / ton, up 150.0 yuan / ton on a weekly basis and 552 yuan / ton on a year-on-year basis; Inner Mongolia Dongsheng large clean coal truck sector price (q5500) 1047.0 yuan / ton, up 210.0 yuan / ton week on week, up 630 yuan / ton compared with the same period last year.
The level of inventory and transportation decreased steadily. This week, there were 6844 arriving trains on Qinhuangdao Port Railway, with a decrease of 6.09% on a weekly basis; Qinhuangdao Port handled 553000 tons, down 1.25% from the previous week. As of March 10, the inventory of the four major ports around the Bohai Sea (Qinhuangdao port, Huanghua port, Caofeidian port and east port of Jingtang Port) was 10.22 million tons (down 580000 tons on a weekly basis), the number of anchorage ships was 169.0 (down 2.00 on a weekly basis), and the cargo ship ratio (inventory to ship ratio) was 6.0 (down 0.27 on a weekly basis).
The supply guarantee policy has been gradually implemented, and the coal depots in all provinces have become stable; Overseas coal prices continued to maintain an all-time high. As of March 10, the coal inventory in the eight coastal provinces was 28.283 million tons, with a week on week increase of 291000 tons (a week on week increase of 1.04%), the daily consumption was 1.791 million tons, a week on week increase of 19000 tons / day (1.07%), and the available days were 15.8 days, which was flat. As of March 11, the market price of Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (q5500) produced in Shanxi was 940.0 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis. International coal price: as of March 9, the FOB spot price of Newcastle newc5500 kcal thermal coal was US $297.55/ton, up US $126.15/ton on a weekly basis. As of March 11, the active contract of thermal coal futures fell by 34.2 yuan / ton to 818.0 yuan / ton compared with the same period last week, and the futures discount was 122.0 yuan / ton. In January 2022, EU coal imports increased by 56% year-on-year. Considering energy security, European carbon reduction policies have been loosened. Many countries said they would restart coal-fired power or delay the decommissioning plan of coal-fired power units to support the high operation of international coal prices.
Coke: the price rise is smooth, and the contradiction between supply and demand will continue in the short term. As of March 11, 2022, Fenwei CCI Luliang quasi primary metallurgical coke reported 3160 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 200 yuan / ton, a monthly increase of 23.4% and a year-on-year increase of 40.44%. Port index: CCI Rizhao quasi primary metallurgical coke reported 3630 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 250 yuan / ton, a monthly increase of 26.4% and a year-on-year increase of 51.25%. In terms of supply, during the two sessions, strict environmental protection control was superimposed, and the procurement of raw materials in some regions was tight, and the commencement of coke enterprises continued to fall slightly; In terms of demand, the downstream has actively resumed production, the demand has just picked up, the inventory of origin continues to maintain the trend of reducing inventory, and there is still room for bullish coke prices in the future.
Coking coal: coal source tension continues. As of March 10, 2020, CCI Shanxi low sulfur index was 3335 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 517 yuan / ton and a monthly increase of 790 yuan / ton; CCI Shanxi high sulfur index was 2913 yuan / ton, up 428 yuan / ton on a weekly basis and 705 yuan / ton on a monthly basis; Lingshi fat coal index was 2700 yuan / ton, up 250 yuan / ton on a weekly basis and 350 yuan / ton on a monthly basis; Puxian 1 / 3 coke index was 2500 yuan / ton, up 300 yuan / ton on a weekly basis and 600 yuan / ton on a monthly basis. The shortage of coal source leads to the shortage of raw coal arrival of downstream coke enterprises. At present, it is still mainly to replenish inventory, driving the coking coal price to continue to rise.
We believe that at present, we are in the early stage of a new round of upward cycle of coal economy, and the fundamentals, policies and companies resonate. At this stage, the allocation of coal sector is at the right time. According to the cycle characteristics of the coal industry, it has entered the off-season of coal consumption. However, as mentioned in our previous report, China’s power consumption structure has changed, resulting in the continuous rapid growth of power consumption in the whole society and strong demand for power coal; At the supply level, due to the serious shortage of coal mining investment during the 13th Five Year Plan period, the natural depletion and attenuation of superimposed coal resources, the increment of power coal production capacity is difficult to find, and the output of coking coal is seriously insufficient; At the same time, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to high overseas coal prices, and the coal supply and demand pattern is still tight, which is in line with our previous expectation of “not light in the off-season”. From a macro perspective, in the past five to ten years, the global capital expenditure on coal and oil and gas has been seriously insufficient, and the superimposed currency has continued to be over issued, which has led to this round of energy inflation. At this stage, the industry fundamentals, the underlying logic of the policy and the direct effect are favorable for the repair and improvement of the valuation of the sector. Considering the certainty of the high growth of performance in the first half of this year, it is the best stage for bargain hunting to allocate the coal sector. Investment rating: we continue to look at the coal sector in an all-round way and continue to suggest paying attention to the historic allocation opportunities of coal. It is suggested to pay attention to three main investment lines: first, Yankuang energy, the leader of low value and high dividend power coal, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) ; Second, Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , which are both resource scarcity and significant growth; Third, Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) and Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , which have great potential for extensive expansion brought by the increase of asset securitization rate of state-owned coal group.
Risk factors: coal mine safety production accidents in key companies; The macro economy has fallen sharply.
