Core conclusion
Affected by the market downturn, the new derivatives business outside the securities market decreased month on month. In January, the nominal principal of derivatives outside the securities market increased by 612449 billion yuan, qoq-22.6% / yoy-3.5%; 17753 new transactions, qoq-11.6% / yoy + 18.9%. In January, the CSI 300 index fell 7.6%. Affected by the market downturn, the new derivatives business outside the securities market decreased month on month. Among them, the new nominal principal of income Swap / OTC option in January was 329355/283094 billion yuan, qoq-25.0% / – 19.6%, yoy-1.2% / + 45.6% respectively. By the end of January, the nominal principal of OTC derivatives stock business was QoQ + 2.9% to 2075678 billion yuan, and the nominal principal of income Swap / OTC option stock business was 9839611091717 billion yuan, qoq-4.1% / + 10.2% respectively.
In terms of the subject matter of derivatives trading outside the securities market, 1) OTC options: the proportion of stock indexes decreased, and the commodity category increased steadily month on month. In January, the stock index business still dominated the existing OTC option business of securities companies, with the existing nominal principal QoQ + 8.3% to 614858 billion yuan, accounting for qoq-1.01pcts to 56.32%; Affected by the fluctuation of commodity prices, the nominal principal QoQ + 11.5% of commodity option survival business in January increased to 89.665 billion yuan, accounting for 0.09pct to 8.21%. 2) Income swap: the nominal principal of stock index products has achieved positive growth. In January, the nominal principal of stock index / commodity / individual stock / other income swap business was QoQ + 2.4% / – 8.0% / – 5.5% / – 6.0%, accounting for 23.92% / 3.43% / 16.54% / 56.10% of QoQ + 1.52pcts / – 0.15pct / – 0.25pct / – 1.13pcts.
Private equity funds and commercial banks are the main counterparties of new income swaps and options trading contracts in the current period.
1) in January, private equity funds, other institutions, insurance companies and their subsidiaries were the top three counterparties of the new revenue swap contract, with the nominal amount accounting for 74.34% / 17.24% / 6.57% respectively, QoQ + 0.93pct / + 2.21pct / – 2.80pct; The structure of counterparties has changed significantly year-on-year. The counterparties are private equity funds, insurance companies and their subsidiaries, securities companies and their subsidiaries. The nominal capital of new contracts accounts for yoy + 27.73pcts / + 6.57pcts / – 12.84pcts. 2) In January, commercial banks, insurance companies and their subsidiaries and private equity funds were the top three counterparties of new option contracts, with nominal amounts accounting for 58.50% / 15.13% / 14.87%, QoQ + 5.25pcts / – 1.90pcts / – 0.97pcts and yoy + 1.78pcts / + 15.13pcts / + 9.59pcts respectively.
Investment suggestion: in the short term, the OTC derivatives business will be adjusted to some extent due to market fluctuations, but it will not change the long-term steady growth trend. We believe that the OTC derivatives business will continue to benefit from the growth of institutional investors. For the head securities companies, the development of this business will help to improve the efficiency of capital utilization and leverage the level of roe. Recently, the work report of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress proposed to include the futures and derivatives law in the legislative plan of the National People’s Congress this year. The establishment and improvement of the market system will contribute to the long-term and healthy development of the industry. Head securities companies benefit from the advantages of license sector + relatively sufficient capital + abundant institutional customer resources + strong pricing and risk control ability, and have obvious first mover advantages. We continue to recommend Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , China stock market news, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , and we suggest paying attention to China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (h).
Risk tips: market fluctuation risk, regulatory policy risk
