Price: steel price differentiation this week. This week, the price of 20mm HRB400 thread was 4960 yuan / ton, up + 0.8% from last week, and the price of hot rolling 3.0mm was 5150 yuan / ton, up – 0.8% from last week. The price of raw materials rose this week, and the price of port iron ore rose this week compared with last week; Coke prices rose compared with last week; The price of scrap steel increased compared with last week.
Profit: the profit of rebar fell this week. In terms of long-term process, it is estimated that the gross profit per ton of rebar, hot rolling and cold rolling in the industry this week is – 114 yuan / ton, – 119 yuan / ton and – 121 yuan / ton respectively compared with the previous week. In terms of short process, the profit of electric furnace steel fell slightly this week compared with the previous week.
Output and inventory: this week, the output of rebar increased on a weekly basis, while that of the five major steel mills and social warehouses fell on a weekly basis. In terms of output, the output of large steel varieties on Friday was 9.35 million tons, a decrease of 205700 tons on a week-on-week basis, of which the output of construction steel increased by 82700 tons on a week-on-week basis, the output of sector decreased by 288400 tons on a week-on-week basis, and the output of rebar increased by 64100 tons to 2966900 tons this week. In terms of different steelmaking methods, the output of long and short process deformed steel bars in this week is 2 Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) tons and 363600 tons respectively, and the cycle to ring ratio is + 35000 tons and + 29100 tons respectively. In terms of inventory, on Friday, the total social inventory of large steel varieties decreased by 269900 tons to 175761 million tons, the total inventory of steel mills decreased by 5.9241 million tons and 392600 tons, including 85300 tons of rebar social warehouse and 280200 tons of factory warehouse. In terms of apparent consumption, it is estimated that the apparent consumption of rebar this week is 3.3324 million tons, an increase of 777100 tons on a weekly basis, and the daily average transaction volume of construction steel this week is 178400 tons, an increase of 2.14% on a weekly basis.
Investment suggestion: the two sessions of the National People’s Congress put forward the goal of China’s GDP growth of about 5.5% in 2022. It is expected that the follow-up steady growth policy will continue to support the demand for steel. In the short term, the downstream began to resume production in an orderly manner, and the steel consumption intensity gradually increased. It is estimated that the apparent consumption of rebar this week is 3.3324 million tons, with a weekly increase of 777100 tons. On the supply side, under the background of “double carbon”, the release of steel output is limited. On Friday, the output of large steel varieties decreased by 205700 tons on a weekly basis. In terms of inventory, the inflection point of social inventory appeared, and the social Treasury fell 269900 tons month on month this week. On the whole, the steady growth policy is gradually promoted, the peak consumption season is superimposed, the steel demand intensity continues to rise, the inflection point of steel inventory appears, and the focus of steel price is expected to rise. Suggestions: 1) ordinary steel sector: Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) ; 2) Special steel sector: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) ; 3) Target of Superalloy: Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) ; 4) Target of graphite electrode: Fangda Carbon New Material Co.Ltd(600516) ; 5) Pipe object: Tianjin You Fa Steel Pipe Group Stock Co.Ltd(601686) , Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) .
Risk tip: the demand for real estate steel has fallen precipitously; Steel prices fell sharply; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly
