Review of retail market:
In the past week (five trading days), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen component index increased by – 4.00% and – 4.40% respectively, and the commercial retail (CITIC) index increased by – 4.11%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and outperforming the Shenzhen composite index. Since 2022 (44 trading days), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen component index have increased by – 9.07% and – 16.22% respectively, and the commercial retail (CITIC) index has increased by – 8.95%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index.
In the past week, the trade and retail industry increased by – 4.11%, ranking 11th among the 29 CITIC first-class industries. In the past week, 0 of the 29 CITIC first-class industries rose. The top three industries were power equipment, medicine and comprehensive, with increases of – 1.01%, – 1.85% and – 1.99% respectively. Since 2022, the trade and retail industry has increased by – 8.95%, ranking 13th among the 29 CITIC first-class industries. Since 2022, one of the 29 CITIC first-class industries has risen. The top three industries are coal, banking and construction, with an increase of 16.21%, – 1.11% and – 1.71% respectively.
In the past week, the top three sub industries in the retail sector were supermarkets, trade and department stores, with increases of 0.80%, – 2.93% and – 3.70% respectively. Since 2022, among the sub industries in the retail sector, the top three sub industries are professional market, trade and gold jewelry, with increases of – 3.29%, – 5.63% and – 6.04% respectively.
In the past week, 13 of the 93 major listed companies in the retail industry (excluding the first listed companies in 2021) rose and 80 fell. In the past week, the top three companies were Baida Group Co.Ltd(600865) , Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) and Shenyang Cuihua Gold And Silver Jewelry Co.Ltd(002731) , with an increase of 11.92%, 7.82% and 5.42% respectively. Since 2022, 39 of the 93 major listed companies in the retail industry (excluding the first listed companies in 2021) have increased and 54 have decreased. Since 2022, the top three companies are Beijing Cuiwei Tower Co.Ltd(603123) , Baida Group Co.Ltd(600865) and Renrenle Commercial Group Co.Ltd(002336) , with an increase of 121.96%, 28.03% and 24.55% respectively.
Retail industry investment strategy:
The recent epidemic has been repeated, and offline physical retail has been greatly challenged. Especially in first tier cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen, offline catering, physical retail and even online sales are under certain pressure. We believe that the national retail data in March will be negatively affected. Given that the weight of the data in March has always been small, it has little impact on the operation of the whole year. The supermarket sector, benefiting from the expected impact of hoarding caused by the epidemic, may have a pulse market, but the duration may be relatively short, because the impact of community group buying and fresh e-commerce on traditional supermarkets still exists. In the short term, we are still optimistic about the performance of gold jewelry in the first quarter of 2022. E-commerce stocks fell sharply, mainly due to the impact of overseas markets and the “pessimism” of China concept stocks delisting.
Although the valuation of the four major e-commerce stocks has been in a more reasonable range, investors are advised to wait and see in the short term under the guidance of market sentiment. Suggestions for next week: Shanghai Bailian Group Co.Ltd(600827) , Rainbow Digital Commercial Co.Ltd(002419) , Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) , Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) , Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) , JD.
Risk analysis:
The growth rate of residents’ consumption demand did not meet expectations, the post real estate cycle affected the income growth of some sub industries, and the impact of channel reform on the existing business model was higher than expected.
