The main line of steady growth in 2022 is highlighted. Steady growth focuses on steady investment, and the mechanical equipment industry benefits from multiple perspectives. Since November 2021, in response to the downward pressure on the economy, the steady growth policy has been continuously introduced.
We believe that steady growth focuses on steady investment, and steady investment focuses on infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment. Under the main line of steady growth, the impact on the mechanical equipment industry is mainly in the following seven aspects: ① stabilize the rail transit industry under infrastructure construction; ② Industrial machine tools under the recovery of investment; ③ Wind power photovoltaic equipment end to accelerate the benefits; ④ Charging and changing equipment for new energy vehicles; ⑤ Low carbon transformation of traditional industries; ⑥ Automation transformation drives industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) ; ⑦ Small and medium-sized enterprises are specialized and new.
Moderately advance infrastructure construction, and urban rail investment is one of the key directions. Affected by the epidemic, the national railway investment slowed down in 2020 and 2021, and the growth rate of urban rail transit investment slowed down. In the long run, the new era railway development plan frames the railway construction up to 2035, and urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas push up the demand for intercity and urban rail. We expect that rail transit investment, especially urban rail investment, will play a role in this round of steady growth.
Investment recovered under the main line of steady growth, and the boom of industrial machines continued. The national standing committee meeting in February and the government work report in March proposed a number of tax cuts and support policies to promote the steady growth of the industrial economy. Since last year, China has issued a series of steady growth policies, strengthened the research on core technologies such as industrial machines, and carried out special actions to supplement and strengthen the chain. We expect that the expansion trend of the manufacturing industry is expected to continue and benefit the development of the machine tool industry.
With the construction of energy base, the installed capacity of wind power photovoltaic can be expected, and the equipment end can benefit from acceleration. Under the dual carbon target, new energy infrastructure may become one of the main forces of steady growth. According to the forecast of China Power Council, the installed capacity of new wind power is expected to be 280300gw in the 14th five year plan. According to the prediction of the photovoltaic Association, the global newly installed capacity will reach 270330gw in 2025, of which 90-110gw will be newly installed in China. Huge investment space and high demand for equipment renewal in each industrial chain.
The sales volume of new energy vehicles has increased greatly, and the investment prospect of equipment in the charging and replacement industry chain is broad. In the middle of 2021, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles will be 3521000 (+ 157.57%), and the sales volume is expected to exceed 10 million in 2025. At present, the energy supplement mode of China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile mainly adopts two modes: charging and power exchange, with charging as the main mode and power exchange as the auxiliary mode. It is estimated that by 2025, the market scale of China's charging pile will reach 120 billion to 200 billion yuan, and the market scale of power exchange station will reach 42-56 billion yuan.
Under the background of "double carbon", the demand for low-carbon transformation of traditional industries drives the scale of trillion investment. Including the transformation of cleaner production in key industries (steel, coke, cement, etc.), the transformation of energy conservation and carbon reduction and the transformation of coal units. The total investment during the 14th Five Year Plan period was trillion.
The recovery of demand for automation transformation has driven the upward trend of industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) boom. In the post epidemic era, the demand for downstream applications has recovered, and the demand for automation transformation has gradually increased. Superimposed on the driving factors such as population aging, China's industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) density still has room to double that of Japan, South Korea and other countries.
Special and new support for small and medium-sized enterprises will stimulate investment. The central economic work conference mentioned the need to enhance the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry and stimulate the emergence of a large number of specialized, special and new enterprises. China's manufacturing industry is in the critical stage of transforming from big to strong, and needs the support of a number of competitive enterprises in subdivided fields. The number of Companies in the machinery industry ranks first in terms of specialization, which is expected to breed invisible champions in subdivided industries.
Risk tip: the policy support is lower than expected, the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic industry is lower than expected, and the industry competition is intensified.
