Focus this week: Tiandi Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600582) Jiangsu Shentong Valve Co.Ltd(002438) Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) , Jilin Carbon Valley
Core view of this week: since the beginning of the year, the pressure for steady growth has increased, and the intensity of infrastructure investment is expected to increase. We believe that relatively weak public utilities construction is expected to become a hot spot for investment, including “double carbon” related nuclear energy, hydrogen energy, water network and smart water construction, oil and gas pipeline network construction, which will bring equipment investment demand. The price of resource products remains high, the operation of resource enterprises improves, and relevant equipment enterprises are expected to harvest orders, such as coal machinery, oil service, mining machinery, etc.
Theme of this week: onshore wind power
2022m1-m2 China Bidding: the bidding is 6.3gw, and the single machine above 4MW accounts for more than 80%, and the price is still falling rapidly. According to the publicly available statistical data (daily wind power, Polaris wind power grid, etc.), we calculate that in the first two months of 2022, China’s onshore wind power bidding was 6.3gw, and the bid was 6.7gw. According to the data of 2022m1-m2 China’s successful land wind project, at present, the maximum proportion of single machine scale is required to be “4MW and above”, and the installed capacity accounts for 31.2%, followed by “4.5mw and above”, and the installed capacity accounts for 24.6%. According to the total statistics, the installed capacity of single machine with the scale of 4MW and above accounts for 81.1%, and the installed capacity requiring “6MW and above” also accounts for 22.1%. From the unit price of the winning unit (excluding the tower), the average value is 2046 yuan / kW. According to the data disclosed on Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) official website, we calculated the average price of 2.0-4.0mw wind turbines in 20172021q1-q3. The average price of 2021q1-q3 decreased by 20.7% – 25.0% compared with the average price of 2020, and the average price in the first two months of 2022 decreased by 23.2% compared with the average price of 2021q1-q3. Considering the general trend of wind turbine unit price reduction, it is expected that the subsequent decline will still exist.
Parts: the price reduction pressure of tower and flange is relatively small. 1) According to the calculation of economic indicators of projects with different unit capacity (Xu Yanpeng), in the same 100MW project, the cost of large-scale fan unit is reduced by about 14.45% from 2.0MW to 4.5mw. In 2017, China Landwind was 2.1mw on a single station, with an average of only 3.0MW in 2021, while the price of 2021q1-q3 decreased by 23.1% – 27.2% year-on-year, and the average price of 2022m1-m2 decreased by 23.2% compared with the average price of 2021q1-q3, with a cumulative decline far exceeding the large-scale cost reduction; The raw material cost of wind power parts enterprises generally accounts for 65% – 70% of the total cost, and the scale effect is not steep. Based on the above two points, in 2022, unless the price of raw materials is reduced or borne by the host manufacturer, the profitability of parts enterprises will be under great pressure. 2) Take Sany Heavy energy as an example: blades, generators and slewing supports are parts with high price reduction pressure. Based on the data disclosed by Sany Heavy energy and excluding the impact of raw material price fluctuation, we calculated the following: ① from 2018 to 2020, the kW cost of Sany Heavy energy decreased from 2362 yuan (adjusted to 2649.1 yuan considering the impact of raw material price) to 1963.3 yuan, a decrease of 25.9%, including blades, generators, engine hood and main control system, The less pressure is mainly the pitch system and converter; ② Sany blades and generators are self-produced, which is stronger in terms of cost control. 3) Take Haili wind power as an example: Tower and flange are links with small damage in large-scale. Referring to the 20182021h1 data of Haili wind power, the single kW price of tower has increased from 655.7 yuan in 2018 to 736.7 yuan in 2021h1. Considering that the pricing mode of tower and flange is a cost plus, we need to pay more attention to the change of usage brought by large-scale. From the perspective of cost, the main raw materials of the tower are steel sector and flange, which account for 80% – 85% of the cost of Haili wind power. From these two indicators, the installed capacity of a single tower of the company has increased from 2.44mw in 2018 to 4.36mw in 2021h1, and the weight of a single MW tower has decreased from 86.8t in 2018 to 73.6t in 2021h1, with a compound decrease of 5.3%, including a compound decrease of 9.0% for flange, The composite reduction rate of steel sector is 5.0%, and the consumption reduction rate of tower and flange brought by large-scale is less than that of the whole machine.
Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to enterprises with high industrial structure of Haifeng spare parts, such as Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) , Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) , Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , flange and tower.
Risk tips: 1) the bidding is lower than expected; 2) The construction progress is lower than expected.
