Key investment points
Zhou viewpoint (refers to March 7 to March 13, 2022, the same below)
The multi-point epidemic spread again across the country, and joint prevention and control stressed that we should resolutely avoid further expansion of the scale. Recently, China's epidemic prevention pressure has increased, and under the multi-point spread of the epidemic, the short-term epidemic prevention policy has become stricter, or it may have another impact on consumption. At the same time, the government work report emphasizes to continue to do a good job in normalized epidemic prevention and control and promote the recovery of life service consumption. From the past experience of epidemic prevention, this round of epidemic may be expected to recover in the short term. With the diversification of epidemic prevention methods, the improvement of China's medical treatment capacity and vaccination rate, the release of covid-19 specific drugs and other factors, we believe that the exploration and marginal liberalization trend of new paths of medium and long-term epidemic prevention policies is still in progress, and the number of asymptomatic infections in this round of epidemic situation accounts for a high proportion The relatively small number of severe / dead patients and other different characteristics can also provide valuable experience for the follow-up controllable open pilot.
1) the epidemic spread rapidly, with asymptomatic infections accounting for the majority. The State Council stressed the need to resolutely avoid further expansion of the epidemic scale. After the Spring Festival, the epidemic situation has risen rapidly in many places. Most of the strains are Omicron with strong transmission and concealment, and the number of new asymptomatic infections has increased significantly compared with the past. On the afternoon of March 10, the comprehensive group of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council held a meeting and requested to adhere to the general strategy of "external defense input and internal defense rebound" and the general policy of "dynamic clearing", and resolutely avoid the further expansion of the epidemic scale. The meeting stressed: 1) we should adhere to the early, small, strict and practical implementation, scientifically and accurately implement core prevention and control measures such as rapid nucleic acid screening, rapid flow regulation and traceability, timely standardized centralized isolation, strict community control and timely regional investigation, speed up social prevention and control measures, and tighten external prevention and control measures such as coastal cities, The investigation of epidemic prevention and control risks and hidden dangers in key places should be further strengthened, and the normalized prevention and control gateway should be moved forward to resolutely curb the spread of the epidemic. 2) The "four responsibilities" should be compacted to ensure the implementation of prevention and control measures. Strengthen supervision and inspection, strengthen publicity and guidance, strictly guard against and never relax, and resolutely hold the bottom line of no large-scale rebound of the epidemic.
2) add antigen detection as an effective supplement, alleviate the pressure of fixed-point nucleic acid, and move the prevention and control gateway forward again. The State Council organized and formulated the application scheme for covid-19 virus antigen detection (Trial). Sun Chunlan, vice premier of the State Council, pointed out that the monitoring mode of "antigen screening and nucleic acid diagnosis" should be promoted according to the transmission characteristics of Omicron, so as to improve the sensitivity of monitoring and early warning. Pay close attention to the epidemic prevention and control work and welcome the convening of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. We believe that antigen detection has the characteristics of simple and easy availability (available at retail terminals), fast detection timeliness (results are usually produced in 15 minutes), low price (the terminal price may be about 20 yuan after large-scale listing, which is lower than nucleic acid detection). To a certain extent, it meets the needs of grasping early and small, and moving forward the prevention and control gateway. It is expected to alleviate the gathering and transmission risk of large-scale nucleic acid testing population and the pressure of running on medical resources after popularization, and strengthen accurate prevention and control.
The recovery is expected to embrace Pro cyclical and service consumption growth. We believe that the epidemic situation will continue to be stable and good in the future, with sufficient space for the bottom to rise. Looking forward to 2022, with the steady epidemic prevention and control and the continuous improvement of the industry boom, we are optimistic about the marginal improvement brought by the medium-term recovery and the high-quality service consumption sector with great upward flexibility, such as catering, hotels, scenic spots, Ota, outbound tourism, etc.
1) catering: the chain wave is still surging, and the willows are waiting for the flowers. Looking forward to the future, the recurrence of the epidemic is still the biggest uncertainty in the industry. In 2020, the chain rate of catering in China was only 17.4%, and the average chain rate in developed countries reached 47.2%. In the long run, the trend of industry branding chain is still accelerating, and the leaders continue to benefit. With the steady epidemic prevention and control, we are optimistic about the upward flexibility of the performance in the era of epidemic after the catering leader. We recommend jiumaojiu and Haidilao, Helens and Naixue tea. It is suggested to pay attention to Yum china-s. Catering supply chain is highly correlated with catering performance. We are optimistic about catering supply chain opportunities under the general trend of catering industrialization. We recommend Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) , nongnongshan spring and Yihai international.
2) Hotels: the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and the layout of leading enterprises is accelerated to recover in a cycle. According to yingdie consulting, single hotels or small and medium-sized hotels with weak profitability will be shut down in 2020 under the impact of the epidemic. With the advantages of scale, brand, member resources and capital, Jinjiang, Huazhu and ShouLv, the leaders of chain hotels, expanded against the trend during the epidemic period. In 2020, the market share of Jinjiang, Huazhu and BTS in terms of hotel rooms reached 20.2% / 13.9% / 9.2%, with a total of 43.3%. With the economic growth and consumption upgrading, the proportion of medium and high-end hotels has increased year by year, becoming the main force of the industry development. The epidemic accelerated industry integration and chain rate. With the smooth progress of the vaccine, the superposition of Pro cyclical economic recovery and the recovery of business travel demand, the recovery of hotel performance after the epidemic is expected. It is recommended to Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , and it is recommended to pay attention to Huazhu group-s.
3) Cultural Tourism: the demand has warmed up. The cultural tourism planning of the 14th five year plan is good, and the prosperity is expected to improve. The 14th five year plan for cultural tourism emphasizes promoting the coordinated development of outbound tourism, Chinese tourism and inbound tourism. The recurrence of the epidemic in 2022 may affect the recovery process of cultural tourism for a long time. With the continuous rise of China's vaccine coverage, the performance elasticity of high-quality targets is sufficient and has layout value. Under the background of stable epidemic prevention and control forms and policy support, focus on recommending the long-term performance leader Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , the scarce private leisure scenic spots, and Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , which benefits from the booming demand for peripheral tourism and opens up the space for stock growth; Recommend China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) , with high-quality products and short-term passenger flow pressure. It is suggested to pay attention to Fosun tourism culture, Yunnan Tourism Co.Ltd(002059) , Guilin Tourism Corporation Limited(000978) , Huangshan Tourism Development Co.Ltd(600054) , Mount Emei, Wangfujing Group Co.Ltd(600859) . OTA & outbound tourism business is expected to recover and overseas cultural tourism is expected to continue to benefit. It is recommended to pay attention to Tongcheng travel, Ctrip group-s, Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) , Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) , Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) .
Risk tips: risks such as the continuous spread of the epidemic, macroeconomic fluctuations and policy changes; Risk of fierce competition in the industry; The progress of business transformation, market development and capacity improvement is lower than the market expected risk.
