\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 598 Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) )
Event: the company released the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022.
Key investment points
2022q1 performance greatly exceeded expectations, and the profit per ton remained high
Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022q1 will be 190210 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 146% - 172%, greatly exceeding the market expectation. In 2022q1, the net profit deducted from non parent company is 130145 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 75-95%. We expect that the shipment volume of Q1 is about 550 tons. It is expected that the single ton profit corresponding to the net profit deducted from non parent company excluding the impact of share based payment expenses and convertible bond interest is 298000325000 yuan.
The thermal field accelerated the expansion of production and entered the performance release period
In 2021, Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) has a thermal field capacity of 1600 tons, an output of 1706 tons, a capacity utilization rate of 107%, and a total of 1950 tons of existing and under construction capacity. The company has obtained the EIA approval from the Environmental Protection Bureau, completed the plant assessment, and is in the process of piling construction. The equipment commissioning can be carried out as soon as 2022q2. After the fixed increase reaches the production capacity, the company's production capacity can reach 3450 tons (550 tons of the old plant + 300 tons of IPO expansion + 500 tons of IPO over raised + 600 tons of convertible bonds + 1500 tons of fixed increase this time).
Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) promote technology to reduce costs and maintain high profitability
The market is worried that the supply of thermal field exceeds the demand, but we believe that with the lifting of silicon material supply constraints in the second half of 2022, the downstream grain production rate will gradually rise. The price reduction of the thermal field is in line with the trend of cost reduction and efficiency increase in the photovoltaic industry. From 2018 to 2020, the price per ton of the company's thermal field was reduced from 1.35 million yuan to 950000 yuan. We think it is in line with the logic of continuous cost reduction and efficiency increase in the photovoltaic industry through technological progress. Due to technological cost reduction, Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) the gross profit margin in 20182020 has been maintained at more than 60%. We expect Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) will continue to guide the industrial chain to reduce costs. We expect the price per ton to be about 700000 yuan and the profit per ton to be about 300000 yuan in 2022.
Relying on Jinbo Research Institute, open the platform layout of carbon based materials
(1) semiconductor field: the company's semiconductor thermal field has formed revenue, with revenue of 2.03 million yuan, 6.99 million yuan and 24.36 million yuan from 2019 to 2021 respectively. (2) SiC field: as a by-product of the company's vapor deposition process, carbon powder has the advantages of high purity and low cost Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) has carried out trial production of high-purity carbon powder, high-purity silicon carbide powder and SiC thermal field. In the long run, the cost of SiC thermal field in SiC devices accounts for 10%, and there is a broad market space in the future. At present, the company has made insulation materials within 50ppm in the field of SiC thermal field, and began to send samples in April, leading the layout in the field of SiC thermal field. (3) Hydrogen energy: the company now has type III carbon fiber fully wound hydrogen cylinders, and plans to develop gas diffusion layer / carbon paper and type IV carbon fiber fully wound hydrogen cylinders. In December 2021, Jinbo hydrogen energy signed a cooperation agreement with Guangdong lianyue, which is responsible for Jinbo hydrogen sales. (4) Carbon ceramic brake: the business of carbon ceramic brake disc for new energy vehicles is progressing smoothly and has been put on the mass production schedule. The certification will be carried out in 2022q2. The company will ceramic transform part of the production capacity of the old factory to make up for the short capacity of carbon ceramics. In December 2021, Jinbo carbon ceramic signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Hunan Huda Aisheng Automobile Technology Development Co., Ltd. to promote the application of carbon / ceramic composite brake materials.
Profit forecast and investment rating: with the downstream expansion + technology iteration, we adjusted the parent net profit forecast of the company from 657 / 898 / 1168 million yuan to 7.08 (up 8%) / 898 / 1168 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, corresponding to 27 / 21 / 16 times of the current share price PE, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: downstream capital expenditure is lower than expected; Equipment R & D and market development were lower than expected.
