\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Zhenye(Group)Co.Ltd(000006) 25 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) )
Event overview: on March 10, 2022, Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) released the production and sales data of February, and the output of vehicles was 130900, with a year-on-year ratio of - 17.3% / month on month ratio of - 47.1%; The sales volume was 138100 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of - 15.1% / month on month increase of - 50.2%.
Autonomy: the supply chain restricts the release of production and marketing, and the company's sales volume is under pressure in the short term. In February, the sales volume of Changan Chinese brand cars was 108700, with a year-on-year ratio of - 22.1% / month on month ratio of - 51.9%, of which the sales volume of passenger cars was 69900, with a year-on-year ratio of - 32.7% / month on month ratio of - 55.9%. The overall performance was weaker than that of the industry (the sales volume of narrow passenger cars in China in February was + 26.9% / month on month ratio of - 32.6%). By brand: 1) the sales volume of cs75 / cs55 series was 136 / 5200 units, with a year-on-year increase of - 58.4% / - 49.4%. The order of the second generation cs75 plus exceeded 24000 units in one month; 2) Uni series sold 10000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 42.5%. Uni-k IDD was officially launched in March; Uni-v, a 100000 class sedan, is expected to be launched in March. As of February 22, the cumulative orders have exceeded 16000. The listing of uni series models is expected to drive the company's ASP upward; 3) Yidong / Auchan / Kaicheng sold 10200 / 14700 / 17300 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of - 32.3% / - 27.0% / + 9.8%. The weak sales performance is mainly affected by the Spring Festival holiday and the chip shortage of upstream supply chain enterprises such as Bosch and Schneider. At present, the company has set up a dedicated team to control chips, actively communicate with suppliers and seek domestic substitutes for chips. We expect the supply of the industrial chain to gradually improve in March. At present, the company has nearly 100000 orders on hand, and the subsequent recovery of chips is expected to drive up sales.
Joint venture: the year-on-year performance is better than independent, and the cycle of strong models has started to recover. The sales volume of Chang'an Mazda was 10000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 58.4% / month on month increase of - 49.9%. The cumulative sales volume from January to February was 29800 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 64.5%; The sales volume of Changan Ford was 11900 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 9.2% / month on month increase of - 52.0%. The cumulative sales volume from January to February was 36800 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of - 10.4%. The year-on-year performance was better than that of independent. "Ford China 2.0" transformation plan starts a new cycle. The new generation of main sales model Mondeo is expected to start pre-sale in March, and the main models such as four cylinder Fox / Explorer / Ruijie will be upgraded. The upcoming Lincoln Z is equipped with 27 inch central control screen, 2.0T engine / 8at gearbox, which has outstanding advantages in 300000 passenger cars and is expected to drive the continuous upward sales of the brand, High end products will further boost profitability.
The new energy platform accelerates the landing of products, and the electric intellectualization accelerates. "Huawei + Ningde" creates CHN architecture to enable avita. Avita 11, the first high-end intelligent pure electric SUV, is expected to be mass produced in 2022q3. Chang'an independently developed epa0 / epa1 / epa2 pure electric platform based on ark architecture and CHN architecture to build compact family car c385, entry-level car a158 and compact SUV c673. It is expected to be listed successively this year, or quickly seize 15 Shenzhen Zhongheng Huafa Co.Ltd(000020) 0000 market share. In the future, EPA will be upgraded to SDA architecture, a super digital platform for intelligent vehicles, to help Chang'an new energy launch 11 new products in the next three years and achieve the goal of sales exceeding 700000 vehicles in 2025. With the implementation of product planning, the Shangri La plan, blue whale IDD hybrid and Beidou Tianshu plan are advancing steadily, and the company's electric intelligence is accelerating, which is expected to drive the brand upward.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 4.562/57.97/6.671 billion respectively, corresponding to 19 / 15 / 13 times of the current share price PE respectively. The competitiveness of the company's traditional fuel vehicles continues to be strong, and new energy differentiated dual brands + multiple new vehicles are expected to bring performance growth. Maintain a "recommended" rating.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials fluctuates, the supply of chips is less than expected, and the recovery of passenger car market is less than expected
