\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 195 Gongniu Group Co.Ltd(603195) )
In 2021, the revenue slightly exceeded the expectation, and the company maintained steady growth and "buy" rating for a long time
The company issued a performance express. It is estimated that the revenue in 2021 will be 12.422 billion yuan (+ 23.59%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 2.813 billion yuan (+ 21.59%). Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 3.41 billion yuan (+ 17.40%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 607 million yuan (- 15.09%). Considering that the price of raw materials is still high, we lowered the profit forecast for 20212023. It is estimated that the net profit of the company in 20212023 will be RMB 2.813/33.49/39.65 billion (the original value is RMB 2.902/34.47/4.013 billion), the corresponding EPS will be RMB 4.68/5.57/6.59, and the current share price will be 29.3/24.6/20.8 times that of PE respectively. Considering the stable position of the core main business, new energy and LED will drive into the fast lane, Maintain the "buy" rating.
The high price of raw materials in 2021q4 has put pressure on profitability. We are concerned that the new round of price increase will drive gross profit to improve profitability. It is estimated that the net interest rate in 2021 will be 22.65% (-0.37pct). In a single quarter, the net interest rate in 2021q4 will be 17.79% (-6.81pct) and the non net interest rate will be deducted by 16.90% (-6.22pct). The low decline of non net interest rate is mainly due to the quarterly difference of government subsidy income. The net interest rate in 2021q4 is under obvious pressure. We believe that the main reasons are: (1) the hedging effect is weakened due to the high price of raw materials such as plastics and copper in 2021q4; (2) The dividend of appropriate price increase in mid-2021 weakened. Looking forward to 2022, at the beginning of the year, the company has appropriately raised the price of some wall Kai and LED products. Under the background of uncertain price trend of raw materials, it is not ruled out that the company will take further price raising measures. We expect that the company's gross profit margin is expected to improve marginally from 2021q1 to further boost its profitability.
It is expected to maintain steady growth under the stable position of the core main business, and continue to be optimistic about the continuous high-volume of new energy and led. Looking forward to 2022: (1) in the core main business, the leading position of converter and wall starter is stable. Among them, the converter, as a fast-moving consumer product with rigid demand, has stable demand for natural renewal, and is expected to maintain a steady growth of about 10%. In terms of wall opening, the high-end intelligent upgrading of products and the superposition of force sinking market + b-end market. We expect the leading position of the company to be strengthened and maintain an increase of about 20%. (2) In terms of LED lighting business, the industry competition pattern is good. Relying on its own channel advantages, the company is expected to form a growth curve with no main lights and home lighting as the core, and is expected to achieve a high growth of about 30%. (3) For new energy charging, the company has taken the lead in seizing the e-commerce market and is expected to achieve rapid growth under the first mover advantage. (4) Smart door lock / clothes hanger and other new products are expected to form the company's smart home front decoration ecology together with LED and smart wall, further enabling the rapid growth of the company's b-end business.
Risk warning: the sales of new products are less than expected; The risk of industry competition intensifies; The price of raw materials continues to rise
