\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 68 Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) )
The company issued the 2021 performance express. According to the disclosure of the performance express, in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 20.38 billion yuan, yoy + 22.4%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 7.85 billion yuan, yoy + 30.7%; In 2021, Q4 company achieved revenue of 6.27 billion yuan, yoy + 24.1%, and net profit attributable to parent company of 1.57 billion yuan, yoy + 32.2%.
In 2021, the structure will continue to rise and the cost efficiency will be further improved. In 2021, the company thoroughly implemented the development policy of “fine management to increase benefits and precision marketing to expand the market”, and promoted the benign growth of business scale and profitability. In 2021, the profit side of the company grew faster than the revenue side, mainly due to the growth of operating revenue and the continuous increase in the proportion of medium and high-end products. At the same time, the company implemented fine management to further reduce the expense rate. It is estimated that in 2021, the proportion of Guojiao 1573, a large single product with a price of 1000 yuan, will continue to increase, driving the company’s gross profit margin upward (the gross profit margin in the first three quarters of 2021 was 81.30%, with an increase of 2.73 PCT); In addition, benefiting from the scale growth of Guojiao 1573 and the continuous improvement of Guojiao brand strength, the company’s sales expenses achieved scale effect in 2021. The sales expense rate in the first three quarters of 2021 was 13.72%, down 1.68 PCT at the same time.
Guojiao is still expected to grow rapidly in 2022, and the weak market is waiting to break through. Looking forward to 2022, the company’s large single product Guojiao 1573 with a price of 1000 yuan is expected to maintain rapid growth. At present, the batch price of Guojiao market is about 920 yuan, the market price is stable, and the inventory remains benign. The national cellar presents the strong characteristics of national brand and regionalization, and there is still large room for improvement in the weak market. It is expected that the national cellar will continue to move east and south, and continue to break through the markets in East China and South China. On October 17, 2021, Guojiao company released the new product ” Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) 1952″, which is positioned as the leading brand of Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) line strategy, priced at 899 yuan / bottle. It is expected to provide sales increment for Guojiao franchise company in 2022.
Equity incentive is bound to the management, and the goal of high profit is to strengthen the development direction. On September 27, 2021, the company issued the draft equity incentive plan, covering no more than 521 people, including 9 directors, supervisors and senior executives. Among them, chairman Liu Miao and general manager Lin Feng granted 95900 shares respectively, and put forward the assessment requirements as follows: 1) compared with 2019, the increase of net profit in 202123 is not less than the 75th percentile of 21 benchmarking enterprises; 2) Roe in 202123 shall not be less than 22%; 3) From 2021 to 23, the proportion of costs in revenue shall not be higher than 65%. It is expected that under the guidance of the equity incentive scheme, the company’s performance is expected to achieve good growth.
Investment suggestion: the company’s performance in 2021 will achieve rapid growth, the product structure will continue to rise, the superimposed fee rate will decline, and the profit elasticity will be released. Driven by equity incentive, the profit is expected to continue to grow rapidly. It is estimated that the company’s revenue in 2022 / 2023 will be 25.2/29 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 10 / 12.1 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding P / E of the current stock price is 30 / 25X respectively, Maintain a “recommended” rating.
Risk tips: 1) the dynamic sales and price of leading products such as Guojiao and Tequ are lower than expected; 2) The epidemic caused consumption to fall short of expectations.
