\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 233 Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) )
Core view: Yuantong announced its operation from January to February 2022, and its performance significantly exceeded expectations. Considering that the supervision of express delivery continues in 22 years and the net profit of Yuantong single ticket from the first to third quarters of 2021 is low, it is recommended to actively grasp the investment opportunities in the first quarter and the whole year of 2022.
Raise the profit forecast and maintain the "buy" rating. The price war in the industry slowed down in 2021, and the price in the express industry continued to be strong from January to February 2022. Yuantong has actively adjusted its strategy since the peak season, focusing more on price, and the unit price has improved significantly year-on-year. Considering that the net profit of Yuantong single ticket is still low before the third quarter of 2021 and the profit elasticity of the first quarter and the whole year of 2022 is large, we raised the forecast of 6 Zhejiang Xianju Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002332) 021-2023 net profit attributable to parent company to RMB 2.1/27/31 billion (previously predicted to be RMB 1.5/18/22 billion), and the corresponding EPS is RMB 0.61/0.79/0.91 (previously predicted to be RMB 0.49/0.58/0.71).
The volume and price increased steadily, and the performance from January to February significantly exceeded expectations. From January to February 2022, Yuantong completed 2.3 billion tickets, a year-on-year increase of 27.8%. By month, the company completed 1.329 billion tickets in January, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, and 968 million tickets in February, a year-on-year increase of 83%, far exceeding the growth rate of industrial pieces in February predicted by the Postal Administration (48%). The company continued its price strategy in the peak season, and the price continued to be strong. The performance of the company from January to February significantly exceeded expectations. In January 2022, the unit price of Yuantong was 2.72 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.29%. From January to February 2022, Yuantong realized a net profit of 545 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 186%, and a net profit of 516 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 207%. From the perspective of single ticket net profit, from January to February 2022, the net profit of the company returned to the parent after deducting non single ticket was 0.22 yuan, an increase of 108% compared with Q1 in 2021.
The industry supervision situation continues and is optimistic about the annual profit recovery. In 2021, the national and local governments successively issued relevant policies to control the irrational competition in the industry, and the industry ushered in a phased repair market. The draft of the regulation on the promotion of express delivery enterprises in Zhejiang Province (the revised draft of the regulation on the promotion of express delivery enterprises in February 2021) shall not be lower than the scope of the national express delivery market since February 2021. We believe that the regulatory trend will continue in 2022, and the price performance of the industry will be significantly better than that in 2021, which will have a positive impact on the profitability of express enterprises in 2022.
\u3000\u3000 “ α+β” Factor resonance, pay attention to the company's profit elasticity. In 2021, administrative intervention will ease the competitive pressure, and the express industry will meet the periodic repair market. At present, the price rise in peak season is still retained, driving the company's single ticket net profit to increase significantly year-on-year. Yuantong has continued to promote the comprehensive digital transformation since 2019, with significant improvements in per capita efficiency, customer experience and cost control. With the implementation of a series of measures such as optimizing customer structure and improving product stratification, the company's service quality is expected to be further improved. In addition, considering that Yuantong is in the third position in the industry competition, it is still possible to improve its position with the improvement of service quality and cost optimization. We suggest to actively grasp the investment opportunities of Yuantong in the first quarter and the whole year of 2022.
Risk warning events: the implementation of relevant policies is still uncertain, and the price war may still intensify; If the long-term cost curve of the industry is flat, it will not be conducive to the differentiation between enterprises.
