\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 68 Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) )
Events
The company released the performance express for 2021, which shows that the company achieved an operating revenue of 20.384 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 22.40%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.849 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.70%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 7.751 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 29.38%; 21q4 achieved an operating revenue of 6.247 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.14%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.574 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.21%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.474 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 25.36%. The performance is in line with expectations.
Comments
Performance review: the performance of 21 years is in line with expectations, and the potential energy of Guojiao 1573 continues to be released
In 2021, the company's overall performance was in line with expectations, and the profit margin further rose. From 2017 to 2020, the company's profit margins were 25%, 27%, 29%, 36% and 39% respectively, benefiting from the continuous release of the potential energy of high-level national cellar 1573, the simultaneous rise of volume and price + the accelerated development of low-grade liquor with 40% revenue in North China + the steady development of medium-grade liquor. In 2021, the company's ton price moved steadily and the profit margin maintained steady growth year after year. Specifically: 1) product side: Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) price band layout is relatively uniform (the launch of sub high-end new products Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) 1952 further improves the product matrix), high-end liquor enjoys the expansion bonus, is expected to maintain double-digit growth and further increase the proportion of revenue; Positive adjustment of mid-range products (21h1 volume control and price support, 21h2 appropriate volume); Accelerated upgrading of low-end liquor product structure (Dacheng Luzhou flavor company was established in April to operate low-end liquor); 2) Market side: breakthroughs in the three strategic markets of central China, East China and South China.
The Spring Festival has made a good start: the performance of dynamic sales & payment collection is positive, and the price increase may increase the performance
During the Spring Festival, Guojiao 1573 maintained steady growth, benefiting from the expansion of medium-grade liquor market and the improvement trend of medium-grade liquor dynamic sales such as cellar age; The company's main sales area southwest, North China and East China, the main expansion area, have excellent performance. Affected by the epidemic, there is significant regional differentiation, among which 1573 in North China has excellent performance. In this environment, the price system of Guojiao 1573 is stable (the rated price is about 920930 yuan). At present, the national collection of Guojiao has achieved double-digit growth compared with the same period last year, and the proportion of collection in North / East / Southwest China ranks first. At the same time, the company raised the price system at the beginning of the year, which is expected to further thicken its performance. Considering the smooth payment collection across the country, the rapid progress in North and East China and the improvement of medium-sized mobile sales, the new products of Guojiao 1952 have been put on the market, and the performance of 22q1 is expected to achieve high growth.
22 year Outlook: with the increase of both volume and price and the acceleration of nationalization, the net interest rate is expected to continue to improve
In the medium term, it is expected that under the continuous high-speed growth of Guojiao (the contribution increment of new products of Guojiao 1952) and the accelerated reform of medium and low-grade liquor in 22 years, the scale effect may further push up the net interest rate, and the overall performance of the company will continue the high growth trend:
1) product end: dual brand operation, multi-directional force Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) price band layout is relatively uniform (the launch of new sub high-end products Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) 1952 further improves the product matrix), and the brand matrix is improved: benefiting from the expansion bonus of high-end liquor and sub high-end liquor, gaoguojiao is expected to maintain a growth of 15-20% under the background of price increase (the growth rate of low-end liquor is higher than that of high-end liquor); The adjustment of mid-range products is positive. Tequ sword finger is 300 yuan and will be sold in large quantities on the basis of stable price; The upgrading of low-grade liquor product structure is accelerated, new products are actively attracting investment and distributing goods, and the income and profit are highly flexible.
2) regional end: the national layout has been basically completed. Southwest, North China and other traditional thousand yuan market advantages are obvious; The diversified cultivation markets in East China and central China have gradually increased, the investment in South China has been increased, the national layout has been basically completed, and the nationalization has laid the foundation for the future 10 billion of Guojiao brand.
3) mechanism: the promotion of the marketization of senior management team salary has been set / equity incentive has been implemented to further release its vitality. In the medium to long term, the company will adhere to the "136" strategy in 14th Five-Year, namely, to strengthen the 1 development goals (firmly return to the "top three" target of the Chinese Baijiu industry). Adhere to the three development principles (first, adhere to brand leadership and strive to enhance the brand value of Chinese famous wine. Second, adhere to quality foundation and strive to build a core production area of world famous wine. Third, adhere to culture casting soul and strive to build a pilgrimage place of Chinese wine culture); Build "six in one" Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) (build brand / quality / culture / innovation / digital intelligence / harmony Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) ).
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the revenue growth rate of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 22.8%, 24.1% and 22.6% respectively; The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was 30.6%, 27.5% and 23.1% respectively; EPS is 5.4, 6.8 and 8.4 yuan / share respectively; PE was 42, 33 and 27 times respectively, maintaining the buy rating.
Catalyst: Baijiu demand is expected to exceed expectations, and prices continue to go up.
Risk warning: 1. Overseas epidemic affects China's two outbreak or prevention and control upgrade, affecting the overall Baijiu recovery. 2. Guojiao's price rise was lower than expected
