\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 180 Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) )
Investment logic
The R & D strength at the international level has been verified. Several projects of the company are the first approved in China or the world. ① In 2018, treprizumab became the first domestic PD-1 monoclonal antibody approved for listing in China; ② In 2019 and 2020, BTLA monoclonal antibody was approved for clinical use in the United States and China respectively, making it the world’s first potential blockbuster new immune detection point inhibitor to enter the clinic; ③ In 2021, etsvizumab was the first Chinese original covid-19 neutralizing antibody authorized by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for emergency use; ④ In 2021, vv116 became the first covid-19 small molecule oral drug authorized for emergency use in Uzbekistan; At present, it has completed phase I clinical in China and is in the global multi center phase II / III clinical. It is likely to complete and submit the listing application within this year.
The global rapid commercialization capability has been fulfilled and is being upgraded. ① The annual sales of treprizumab in China after entering medical insurance is in the order of one billion yuan; Cooperate with coherus in the United States and Canada. The company has received a down payment of US $150 million in 2021, and will receive a total cooperation amount of up to US $1.11 billion (including two other innovative drugs in clinical stage) and sales share. ③ PD-1 is a global immune blockbuster with the magnitude of 10 billion US dollars. FDA will determine the marketing results of treprizumab in the treatment of nasopharyngeal carcinoma on April 31, 2022; The company has completed the FDA interim review in 2021; The product meets the “unmet clinical needs”. We believe that if FDA accepts the video instead of on-site verification, it may create a new milestone for China’s innovative drugs to go to sea.
The growth of sustainable innovation is determined. There are abundant pipelines under research, with a fixed increase of nearly 4 billion. In addition to the approved PD-1, adalimumab, covid-19 neutralizing antibody and small molecule drugs, the company is developing 45 pipelines, and the R & D expenditure in 2021 is nearly 2.1 billion yuan. The catalysts in 2022 are: ① approved: PD-1, nasopharyngeal carcinoma in the United States, non-small cell lung cancer in China; ② New indications of PD-1 submitted for listing: Sino US first-line treatment of small cell lung cancer and liver cancer, postoperative adjuvant therapy, esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in the United States; ③ Data readout: a number of new indications of PD-1, psck9 (ngoreximab), btla-4, IL-17A, PARP and PD-1 / TGF- β And so on. Profit forecast
According to the company’s performance forecast, the company’s total revenue in 2021 exceeded 4 billion yuan; We estimate that the sales revenue from treprizumab, the down payment of coherus cooperation is US $150 million, and the sales share and milestone revenue of covid-19 neutralizing antibody in cooperation with Lilly are nearly US $200 million. We believe that the company’s revenue in the next three years will mainly come from treprizumab, vv116 and vv993, adalimumab and ongorecimab and PARP inhibitors to be approved in 2023. We expect that the company’s sales revenue in 2021 / 22 / 23 will be RMB 4.01/31.5/4.59 billion, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB -739 / – 285 / 23 million.
Valuation and investment advice
We use DCF and Market Research rate method to evaluate the company and carefully take the average value. We believe that the reasonable market value of the company in the next 6-12 months is 74.6 billion yuan, corresponding to the target price of 81.92 yuan before fixed increase, and give a “buy” rating.
Risk
The risk that the R & D process and the sales volume of medical insurance do not meet the expectations; Regulatory policies and the lifting of the ban on restricted shares.
