\u3000\u30 Guangdong Tengen Industrial Group Co.Ltd(003003) 73 Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300373) )
Deep ploughing power semiconductor, IDM & design mode parallel. The company is committed to the industrial development of medium and high-end fields such as power semiconductor chip and device manufacturing, integrated circuit packaging and testing. The company’s main products are all kinds of power electronic device chips, MOSFETs, IGBT, silicon carbide SBD, silicon carbide JBS, high-power modules, small signal diodes, power diodes, rectifier bridges, etc. the products are widely used in many fields such as consumer electronics, security, industrial control, automotive electronics, new energy sources and so on. The products have product technology and sales coverage at home and abroad. The company adopts the business model of vertical integration (IDM) integration and fabless parallel; It integrates the vertical industrial chain of semiconductor monocrystalline silicon chip manufacturing, power semiconductor chip design and manufacturing, device design, packaging and testing, terminal sales and services.
The global power market is growing steadily, and the diode disk is basically stable. According to omdia’s estimation, the overall revenue of the global power market rebounded to $46 billion in 2021, mainly due to the release of inhibitory demand for automobiles and consumer electronics, which led to the overall recovery of the market; Looking forward to the continuation of downstream demand in the future, the CAGR is expected to be about 5% from 2020 to 2024. According to IHS Markit data, the global diode market scale is expected to increase from US $4.326 billion to US $4.662 billion from 2019 to 2024, with CAGR of 1.51%; China’s diode market will increase from US $1439 million to US $1554 million, with a CAGR of 1.55%. The company has a complete set of production processes from chip manufacturing to packaging and testing. It is one of the few large-scale enterprises in China that produce and manufacture a full range of diodes, rectifier bridges and discrete device chips.
MOSFET and IGBT are in short supply, and the opportunity of gold substitution has brought important increment to the company. Power MOSFET is the preferred choice of modern power switching devices, which is suitable for high-frequency and low-power scenarios. According to yole data, the global silicon-based MOSFET market will increase from US $7.5 billion to US $9.4 billion from 2020 to 2026. Among them, the growth in the automotive sector is dazzling. The demand related to automatic driving will increase from US $1.4 billion to US $2.3 billion, and the demand related to vehicle electrification will increase from US $100 million to US $700 million. The share and market scale of IGBT in power semiconductor will be increased. According to yole data, from 2020 to 2026, the global IGBT market will increase from US $5.4 billion to US $8.4 billion, CAGR 7.5%; In 2018, IGBT accounted for about 27.5% of the global power device market, and the proportion will increase to 28.1% by 2024. Although China’s power semiconductor market has accounted for more than 50% of the world, 90% of medium and high-end MOSFET and IGBT devices still rely on imports, and there is a broad space for domestic substitution.
Products continue to break through, and IDM mode has delivery advantages. The company’s 8-inch 1200V grooved IGBT chips and modules have started risk mass production, and IGBT high-frequency series modules and IGBT frequency converter series modules have received batch orders; The company continues to optimize the performance of trench MOSFET and Sgt MOS series and expand the category. The company adopts IDM mode, which has the advantages of cost optimization of the whole industrial chain and perfect technology and process. The company’s own production capacity is expected to strengthen the stability of delivery under the background of tight production capacity of 8-inch wafers. We expect the company’s revenue in 2021, 2022 and 2023 to be RMB 4.397 billion, 57.89 billion and 7.353 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 68.0% / 31.7% / 27.0%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 758 / 939 / 1188 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 100.4% / 23.9% / 26.5%; Corresponding to pe46 6/37.6/29.7x。 For the first time, give a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: product development is less than the expected risk, and capacity expansion is less than the expected risk
