\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 96 Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) )
Key investment points
Event: the company disclosed] 2021 annual performance express. It is estimated that the annual revenue will reach 13.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 29.0%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 2.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.5%; Single Q4 achieved a revenue of 3.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.6%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 320 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 1.6%. The revenue of single Q4 exceeded market expectations.
21q4 grew faster than expected and the product structure continued to be optimized. The revenue of single Q4 was + 42.6% year-on-year, with significant acceleration month on month. It is expected that the release of the company's brand potential energy is accelerated, and the construction of channels outside the province has entered the harvest period. In addition, low inventory and high advance receipts at the end of the third quarter laid the foundation for the high growth of single Q4; The profit growth rate of single Q4 was 1.6%, which was lower than the market expectation. It is expected that it is mainly due to the increase of cost investment and the rhythm of tax confirmation. 1. In terms of products, according to channel feedback, the potential energy of Gu 20 / 16 has entered the accelerated release period, and the consumption heat continues to ferment, which is expected to increase by more than 50% year-on-year; The demand for gu8 terminal with mainstream price in the province is strong, and the inventory of gu5 / gift version is lower than that in the same period of previous years. It is expected that Yellow Crane Tower wine with low base will also have a beautiful performance, and the upgrading of the company's product structure will continue. 2. Regionally, Anhui's economy is strong, the price upgrade continues to exceed expectations, and the growth of medium and high price products represented by Gu 20 in the province has increased significantly; The company has made solid progress in the construction of markets outside the province. The elasticity of low base outside the province is better than that in the province. The terminal market rate and consumer self ordering rate of GU20 and other medium and high-end products have increased steadily.
Spring Festival sales exceeded expectations, and 2022 is expected to have a good start. 1. In 2021, the company achieved the annual target ahead of schedule. Before the Spring Festival, the channel inventory was at a reasonably low level. During the Spring Festival, the dealers in and outside the province had good enthusiasm to make payment, and the payment collection progress was ahead of the same period in previous years. It had a solid foundation for a good start. 2. Anhui has a strong economic development. It was not affected by the epidemic during the Spring Festival. The control of consumption scenes was loose, and the number of returnees increased significantly year-on-year. The Spring Festival sales in Anhui market exceeded expectations. Among them, the year-on-year increase of medium and high price products of gu8 and above was significant, and gu5 / gift edition benefited from the significant improvement of the increase of returnees. 3. The markets outside the province represented by Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai performed well during the Spring Festival. Before the festival, the dealers outside the province had high enthusiasm to make money, the mobile sales of market terminals were smooth, the turnover of dealers was fast, the inventory was low, consumers' recognition of Gujing brand continued to improve, and consumer cultivation and channel construction gradually entered the harvest period.
The advantages of systematization are obvious, and the flexibility of performance is expected to be released. 1. Anhui has a strong economy and the mainstream price continues to upgrade. The volume of gu16 / 20 of the company is significantly ahead of the competitive products at the secondary high-end price, and has established a significant first mover advantage. As the absolute leader of Huijiu, the company will fully benefit from the dividend of consumption upgrading and share concentration. 2. Relying on the genes of the old eight famous wines, the company carried out cost investment, promoted channel investment promotion according to local conditions, made substantial breakthroughs in Highland markets such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, and realized multi regional exchange volume growth from point to area; 3. With the empowerment of excellent management, the company's strategy is clearly implemented in place. With the accelerated release of brand potential energy, many markets outside the province have hematopoietic function, the company's expense rate may decrease marginally, and the performance elasticity is expected to be released continuously.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 4.19 yuan, 5.91 yuan and 7.61 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 48 times, 34 times and 26 times respectively. The company will focus on the secondary high-end and solidly promote the national expansion. The performance elasticity will continue to release and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the risk of sharp economic decline and the risk of repeated covid-19 epidemic
