\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 96 Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) )
Matters:
On March 10, Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) released the performance express for 2021. In 2021, the company is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of 13.271 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.95%; The operating profit was 2.678 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.06 billion yuan; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.291 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.54%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 2.201 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24.14%; The basic earnings per share was 4.44 yuan, an increase of 20.63% over the same period last year.
Ping An View:
In 2021, it ended steadily and took the initiative to control the goods in the fourth quarter. In 2021, the company is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of 13.271 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.95%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.291 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.54%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 2.201 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24.14%. 21q4 company is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of 3.169 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.58%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 322 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.66%. The company ended steadily in 21 years, exceeding the set target of 12 billion. In the fourth quarter, under the condition of good completion of sales tasks, the company took the initiative to adopt the strategy of controlling goods and stabilizing growth, and stopped accepting GU20 orders from November 1, laying the foundation for performance growth in the coming year.
During the Spring Festival, the dynamic sales are strong, laying the foundation for the annual performance. During the Spring Festival, the sales of Baijiu in Anhui area were good, mainly due to the epidemic control and better return to the countryside, and the terminal sales situation was better than in previous years. At present, Anhui Province has entered the stock market of volume reduction and price increase. Gujing has occupied the secondary high-end market through product structure upgrading and refined channel construction, leading the upgrading of consumption in the province and the continuous upgrading of strategic key single products. According to the channel research, the company made a good start in the Spring Festival of 22 years. The products of gu5, gu8, GU20 and other price bands have excellent performance, stable pricing and benign inventory. It is expected that the annual performance will continue to be good.
Actively expand markets outside the province and accelerate the process of nationalization. In terms of expansion outside the province, Gujing actively expands the market outside the province, adjusts the investment promotion strategy according to the local conditions, carries out fine cost investment, and accelerates the process of nationalization. At present, Gujing has been located in key markets such as Hubei, Jiangsu and Hebei. It has entered the secondary high-end with the top 20 single products of ancient times, and has been named the Spring Festival gala for seven consecutive years, so as to cultivate the minds of consumers outside the province. During the Spring Festival, Gujing performed well in key markets such as Jiangsu. In the future, the company will continue to raise high costs and realize the accelerated volume around Anhui market and markets outside the province. We expect that under the positive effect of the company’s brand launch and channel strategy, it is expected to achieve the goal of accounting for 40% outside the province.
Huijiu is the leader of Huijiu and keeps the “recommended” rating. Gujing, as the leader of Huijiu liquor, has good brand potential and channel advantages, and fully benefits from the secondary high-end expansion and national expansion. We are optimistic about the long-term competitiveness of the company. Considering that the company still needs to invest high and high expenses in the process of nationalization, we adjusted the profit expectation. It is estimated that the company’s EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 4.35/5.71/6.97 yuan (originally predicted to be 4.57/6.02/7.34 yuan from 2021 to 2023), maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk hint: 1) Baijiu industry downturn risk. Baijiu industry boom and price trend is highly correlated, if Baijiu prices decline, may cause the enterprise revenue growth slowed sharply. 2) The change of management is likely to lead to business fluctuation risk. Baijiu enterprises are influenced by business strategies, such as changing management level, which may lead to a sharp fluctuation in revenues and profits. 3) Policy risk. Baijiu industry demand and tax rate are greatly influenced by policies, such as changes in relevant policies, which may have a greater impact on the company’s revenues and profits.
