\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 58 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) )
Event: Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) 21 achieved annual revenue of about 66.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 15% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 23.35 billion yuan, an increase of about 17% at the same time. Among them, 21q4 achieved a revenue of 16.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%. Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) ended smoothly in 2021, and double-digit steady growth is expected in 2022.
Strengthen the “1 + 3” product matrix, and continue to adhere to the strategy of increasing both volume and price in the fifth five year plan. In the early stage, the market may be worried that the growth rate of 22q1 performance will not meet the expectation after the price increase of the general five year plan in 22. We have conducted intensive research on Chengdu, Jiangsu, Shandong and other markets, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) as the first brand in the 1000 yuan price segment, we continue to enjoy the market expansion bonus of 1000 yuan price. The company’s payment collection in 21q1 reached about 35% – 40%. It is expected that 22q1 will continue to achieve double-digit growth on the high basis of the previous year, and the certainty of double-digit growth of annual performance is high. In addition, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) in the previous year, the outstanding goods left over by history were handled, and after the 22-year Spring Festival inventory was effectively removed, the 22-year growth rate was more healthy and stable. In terms of product matrix, the company further innovated the “1 + 3” product system of the main brand (1 is centered on the eighth generation of universal five, and 3 refers to the cellar series represented by 501, the year series represented by classics and cultural and creative Series). By orderly guiding the orderly volume of classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and cultural and creative products, the company reduced the volume pressure of the main brand, so as to realize the virtuous cycle of volume and price of the eighth generation of universal five.
In the off-season, the volume and price of badaipu five controls are very high, and the rated price is up to repair the channel profit level. In the early stage, the market may worry that the approval price is delayed for thousands, and the channel profit will be damaged. Since 21q4, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) has raised the comprehensive cost of puwu to 969 yuan. On the one hand, it has raised the wholesale price by means of cost plus, on the other hand, it has accelerated the market purification of 21-year-old goods. After the Spring Festival peak season, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) will focus on the precise delivery of traditional channels, develop classic and cultural and creative products, and reduce the pressure on the growth of puwu. In terms of traditional channels, the company recently began to close the warehouse and inventory, actively reduce and control the supply quantity in problem areas, and ensure the scarcity of the eighth generation through the accurate delivery of quotas. In terms of cultural and creative products, the company will continue to maintain the launch of high-quality cultural wines such as the zodiac series for 22 years, and successively restore products such as plain sailing and taking the lead, so as to provide new profit growth points through accurate selection. It is estimated that the importance of the price of puwu in 22 years is slightly greater than that of the volume (the historical shortage has been handled). The subsequent companies may continue to implement the strategy of controlling the volume and price, strengthen the control of the price of puwu in the off-season, and are expected to raise the price to 1000 yuan in April, so as to realize the simultaneous increase of volume and price in the peak season of the Mid Autumn Festival.
Classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) actively optimized the quota and re established the super high-end scarce brand. In view of the recent phenomenon of disorderly prices and fleeing goods in classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) channels, the company took the initiative to adjust tactics: 1) optimize the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) quota. After nearly one year of operation, classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) has screened nearly 200 high-quality traditional channel providers, and on this basis, implement the hierarchical quota system to ensure the scarcity of classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) quota. For dealers with high classic inventory in the early stage, the platform chamber of Commerce will buy back their supply and stop cooperation at the same time. 2) Build five highland markets. The follow-up operation of the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) is no longer focused on investment promotion, but more on the cultivation of consumers in the highland market, and orderly guide the price upgrading of the general five consumer groups. In 2022, classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) will build five highland markets in Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Shenzhen and Guangzhou, and focus on cultivating 33 key markets such as municipalities directly under the central government and provincial capital cities. 3) Take the initiative to sort out the relationship between quantity and price. The ex factory price of the 22-year classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) has been raised to 1599 yuan. At the same time, the scarcity of goods source is ensured by controlling the quantity and digesting the inventory, so as to guide the continuous rise of wholesale prices in an orderly manner.
The management made a sound and set the tone for steady growth, and the 14th five year plan anchored the medium and long-term development. The market may be worried about the uncertainty of the company’s management adjustment. This time, President Jiang took over smoothly and smoothly, with a clear division of internal management. Recently, a new round of channel research has been started, realizing the seamless connection of the management. In the future, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) will focus on the reform of management and employee stock ownership and salary, do a good job in salary reform under the background of three-year reform action of state-owned enterprises, and improve equity incentive, profit sharing and follow-up investment in the medium and long term. It is expected that after this round of management adjustment, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) will be more creative in continuing the “Second Entrepreneurship”, more coherent in the formulation and implementation of market policies, and actively optimistic about the two wheel drive of puwu and classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) under the stability of the management.
In the past 22 years, the business train of thought is clear, and the company is optimistic about the valuation and repair of the company. The 22-year Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) valuation fell back to the comfortable range, and it is expected to realize the double recovery of expectation and valuation after the management set the tone. It is estimated that from 2022 to 2023, the company will achieve a revenue of 75.705/85.884 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 27.540/31.982 billion yuan, corresponding to PE 24.2/20.8x from 22 to 23 years. In the future, there is room for further repair and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the competition of 1000 yuan price band intensifies; The dynamic sales in the market are less than expected; The epidemic situation is repeated.
