\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 083 Zwsoft Co.Ltd(Guangzhou)(688083) )
The company is a leading enterprise of industrial software in China, and its performance has maintained steady and rapid growth. After more than 20 years of independent research and development of CAE core technology and CAD related fields, overdrive has independent intellectual property rights in CAE core technology and CAD. The company continues to expand its product boundaries. At present, it has three product lines: 2D CAD, 3D CAD and CAE. At present, a series of software products have sold well in more than 90 countries and regions around the world. In the future, the company will strive to build a CAX integrated platform covering the whole process of design, simulation and manufacturing. In recent years, the company’s performance has maintained steady and rapid growth. According to the 2021 annual performance express, the company is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 619 million (+ 35.64%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 181 million yuan (+ 50.67%), of which the growth rate of revenue has been higher than the target value set by equity incentive in 2021.
Chinese CAD manufacturers are expected to usher in a good opportunity for development. CAX integration and cloud are the trend in the future. Industrial software is of great significance to modern industrial production, and China’s CAD industry has gradually begun to develop. From 2014 to 2019, the market scale of 2D CAD and 3D CAD reached 23.22% and 23.93%, respectively, faster than the growth rate of the global market. In the future, Chinese CAD manufacturers are expected to usher in good opportunities for development: 1 the country continues to promote the legalization of software, which creates a huge effective market demand for domestic genuine software suppliers with cost-effective advantages; 2> With the influence of Sino US trade friction, the importance of localization of core technology of industrial software is becoming more and more prominent, and domestic software is expected to gradually realize domestic substitution; 3> The performance of some domestic industrial software is close to that of overseas software, which can seize the market with the advantage of cost performance. Since industrial software covers the whole life cycle of products, the value of collaborative application of various software can not be ignored. In the future, the overall solution with CAX integration ability will become the mainstream; In addition, cloud based industrial software can provide customers with more flexible and differentiated solutions. At present, overseas leaders are actively promoting the process of product cloud transformation.
The company continues to promote the all in one CAX strategy, and the product ecology continues to expand. 1> In terms of 2D CAD, the company’s series of products are in the leading position of the second camp in the industry, and the product performance is close to AutoCAD. The company mainly realizes market breakthrough through the secondary development ecosystem, and gradually expands the market through the continuous upgrading of product functions and the launch of Xinchuang version; 2> In terms of 3D CAD, the company is still in the polishing stage of products. Due to the high core R & D barriers of 3D products, it is very important to continuously verify with customers. Over the years, the company has maintained good cooperation with head customers and carried out fine and two-way polishing and iteration on the existing 3D kernel. At the same time, the company is also increasing the research and development of a new generation of 3D kernel to promote the extension of the company’s business to high-end fields; 3> CAE is one of the keys of the company’s CAX integration strategy. The company is also continuously investing in R & D and is expected to gradually expand the market in the future. In addition to product ecology, the company has also continued to strengthen the construction of education ecology and marketing ecology, which is of positive significance to the long-term and healthy development of the company’s business.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We predict that the company’s earnings per share from 2021 to 2023 will be 2.93 yuan, 3.85 yuan and 5.17 yuan respectively. Due to the leading product strength in China, according to comparable companies, the company will be given a price earnings ratio of 66 times in 2022, with a corresponding reasonable share price of 253.98 yuan, and a buy rating for the first time.
Risk tips
The progress of localization is less than expected, the progress of legalization is less than expected, the progress of R & D is less than expected, and the market competition is intensified.
