\u3000\u30 Xuchang Ketop Testing Research Institute Co.Ltd(003008) 96 Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) )
Core view
In 2021, the operating revenue of the company was 1.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 104.13%, and the profit was 958 million yuan (the median value of the previous performance forecast was 950 million yuan), a year-on-year increase of 117.81%. The annual report plans to distribute cash dividends of 21 yuan for 10 shares.
From the point of view of products, the injection products (mainly hi body) achieved 1 billion 50 million revenue, an increase of 133.8% over the same period, 385 million of gel products injection, an increase of 52.8% over the previous year, and 5 million 300 thousand yuan of facial implant line business, an increase of 187.7% over the same period last year. The cosmetic business income was 11 million 100 thousand yuan, up 40.7% over the same period last year.
The gross profit rate + expense rate improved, and the company’s profitability hit a record high. In 2021, the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company was 66.2%, with a year-on-year increase of 4.2 PCTs. In terms of splitting: 1) gross profit margin: in 2021, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 93.7%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.9 PCTs; 2) Expense ratio: the company’s sales, management and R & D expense ratios were 10.8%, 4.5% and 7.1% respectively, with year-on-year growth of + 0.8, – 1.7 and – 1.6 PCTs. Under the background of high income growth, the operating leverage was significantly improved.
Abundant cash flow and continuous improvement of inventory turnover days. In 2021, the company’s net cash flow from operating activities was 943 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 121.5%. The number of inventory turnover days was 122 days, compared with 155 days in the same period last year.
The marketing system has been continuously optimized and the competitive advantage has been strengthened. By the end of 2021, the company had 236 sales and marketing personnel (160 by the end of 2020), covering 5000 medical and American institutions across the country. The company adhered to the differentiated marketing model of direct marketing with distribution as the supplement. The revenue of direct marketing and distribution model was 883 million yuan and 565 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 104.2% and 104%. Quanxuan college is an important marketing carrier. In 2021, quanxuan college registered and certified more than 10000 cooperative doctors, paid attention to more than 20000 users, and organized 150 offline academic conferences at all levels.
We believe that in the short term, the main focus in 2022 is the large volume of new products Angel needle and panda needle. The core product hi body is still in the stage of rapid growth. Our view is also verified by the grass-roots survey data in January + February; In the medium and long term, new products such as botulinum toxin and liraglutide are expected to achieve growth relay after 2023, and the high growth is expected to be maintained in the long term. In addition, industry regulation tends to be normalized, and the marginal impact on share price repression is gradually weakened. In the medium and long term, it is good for the head company, and the company is expected to fully benefit as a leader of China’s medical and beauty industry
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
According to the annual report, we fine tune the profit forecast for the next three years (slightly increase the gross profit margin and R & D expense rate, and reduce the management expense rate). We expect the company’s earnings per share from 2022 to 2024 to be 6.89 yuan, 9.72 yuan and 12.71 yuan respectively (compared with 6.91 yuan and 9.80 yuan in the previous 22-23 years), and the target valuation of DCF is 558.26 yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: product safety risk, stricter industry supervision, commercialization of new products, ASP, gross profit margin and sales volume are lower than expected
