\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 68 Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) )
Performance review
The company released its performance express on March 11. It is estimated that the annual revenue of 2021 will be about 20.38 billion yuan, an increase of about 22.4% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 7.85 billion yuan, an increase of about 30.7% at the same time.
Business analysis
21. The performance is in line with expectations and is optimistic about the synergy potential energy of the product matrix. The company disclosed its performance for 21 years. The annual revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 22% / 31%, of which Q4 revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 24% / 32%. The profit side elasticity is expected to increase the proportion of core Guojiao series. 1) Product side: the sales caliber of core national cellar is expected to increase by nearly 40%, and the proportion of revenue is expected to be 65% ~ 70%. Among them, the proportion of low degree has increased, which is a good operation in North China; The target growth rate of 22 years is about 30%, and the low height structure is expected to continue to be optimized. At present, the high rating is about 920 yuan, and the channel profit is in large single digits; According to the feedback from some regions, the price of internal / external funds raised to 960 / 1020 yuan, and the price is expected to continue to rise during the year. The company will launch Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) 1952, black cover and other single products within 21 years to supplement the product matrix, which is expected to open up a new growth curve in the medium and long term. 2) Market side: we expect that North China will increase by about 40% in 21 years, and Henan will continue to sort out channels, which is expected to release energy in the future; In the past 22 years, the main sales area of Sichuan and Chongqing has increased steadily, and the market in South / East China has accelerated its promotion and cultivation, with vast medium and long-term incremental space.
Optimistic about the company’s brand + product + mechanism, and the implementation of incentive has consolidated the performance expectation. At the same time, the company’s equity incentive system will be strengthened and the company’s performance evaluation system will be strengthened in the 21st year, which will also enhance the overall coverage of the company’s performance. On the brand side, the company’s Guojiao + Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) dual brand drive, and the product matrix is improving day by day. On the channel side, the company has strengthened the control over channels and terminals due to urban policies, with relatively high cost-effectiveness, and the targeted area is gradually cultivating consumer stickiness. According to the current channel feedback, the company’s payment progress is about 40%, among which the progress in North China, Sichuan and other regions is relatively high, the overall delivery progress is basically the same, and the inventory is at a benign level in about one month; We expect Q1 to increase by 20% at the same time, and the profit side may be flexible. The company’s channel control level ranks at the forefront of the industry, and the expense rate is expected to be flat in the future. We are optimistic about the effectiveness of subsequent price increases of core products in boosting the company’s performance.
Investment advice
We expect the revenue growth rate to be 22% / 23% / 20%, the profit growth rate to be 31% / 27% / 24%, the EPS to be 5.36/6.78/8.40 yuan, and the PE corresponding to the current stock price to be 38 / 30 / 24x respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Repeated epidemic risks, intensified regional market competition risks, macroeconomic risks and food safety problems.
