\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 037 Kingsemi Co.Ltd(688037) )
Event overview:
The company released its 2021 annual report: the annual revenue was 829 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 152%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 77 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 58%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent was 64 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 391%. The three indicators are located near the median value of the forecast. It is estimated that the company achieved a revenue of 283 million yuan in 21q4, with a month on month ratio of + 44% and a year-on-year ratio of + 142%. In this quarter, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 23 million yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 28% and a year-on-year ratio of + 475%. The corresponding deduction of the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 18 million yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 11%, and a year-on-year ratio of – 03 million in 20q4.
Domestic leader of gluing and developing equipment, fully benefiting from domestic substitution
The company achieved substantial growth in revenue and net profit in the past 21 years, mainly due to the high prosperity of the industry and the substitution of domestic products. High prosperity of the industry: the lack of semiconductor core since 20q4 has prompted the wafer factory to start a new round of production expansion, driving the demand for upstream equipment. Domestic substitution: in China’s gluing and developing equipment market, 91% share is monopolized by Tel, and Kingsemi Co.Ltd(688037) share is 4%, with huge room for improvement. The leading advantages of the company in the four major equipment fields continue to show, fully benefiting from the domestic substitution boom: 1) the front gluing and developing equipment has won many orders from major customers; 2) The previous physical cleaning equipment received repeated orders from Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) , Shanghai Huali, Wuhan Xinxin, Xiamen Shilan Jike and other Fab factories in China in 2021; 3) The latter advanced packaging related equipment has become the main mass production equipment of China’s first-line large factories such as TSMC, Jcet Group Co.Ltd(600584) , SMIC Shaoxing and so on; 4) Small size equipment can cover many fields such as compounds, MEMS and led. At present, as a mainstream model, it has been applied in batches to Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) , Hc Semitek Corporation(300323) and other large customers.
High end equipment is available in large quantities, and the orders on hand are full
1) in the field of previous gluing and development, the company’s offline and i-line equipment entered the stage of batch sales, and KrF equipment passed the acceptance of customer ATP; 2) In the field of front-end cleaning, the company has mastered the core technology of 28nm node. The main customers are China’s first-line Fab factory, which is expected to continue to increase production with the expansion of key customers; 3) advanced packaging, the company has opened up China’s Taiwan customers in the 21 years, and is expected to further expand its overseas market in 22 years. 4) In the field of small size, the company has covered the first-line manufacturers of LED in China. With the expansion of key customers, especially Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) in the field of LED, its market leading position is expected to be further consolidated. According to the company’s announcement, in the first three quarters of 21 years, the company had 1.33 billion yuan of orders on hand and 310 million yuan of new orders for front road equipment. By the end of the 21st century, the company’s contractual liabilities were nearly 350 million yuan, an increase of 166% over the end of the 20th year, and its inventory reached 940 million yuan, including 300 million yuan of goods issued, 340 million yuan of products in process and nearly 60 million yuan of inventory: relevant business data showed strong growth momentum in 22 years.
The raised investment project is about to be put into operation, and the capacity expansion escorts the rapid growth
1) IPO raised investment projects: according to the company’s announcement, some plants of the company’s IPO raised investment projects were put into use in 21q4, resulting in capacity increment; 2) 21m6 additional issuance project: the company plans to raise no more than 1 billion yuan and invest in Shenyang phase II and Shanghai Lingang Holdings Co.Ltd(600848) projects respectively. Shenyang phase II project involves i-line, KrF and front BARC gluing and developing equipment, and port project involves ARF / submerged gluing and developing equipment and single-chip chemical cleaning machine. The superposition of the two raised investment projects helps the company to open capacity space and better grasp localization opportunities on the one hand, and strongly supports the R & D reserve of high-end equipment on the other hand.
Investment advice
In view of the fact that the company’s revenue in 21 years exceeded the expectation (the original forecast value was 650 million yuan), and the shipment of high-end equipment with high unit price in 22 years led to the improvement of ASP, we raised the forecast of the company’s revenue in 2022 / 23 / 24 to 13.1/17.3/2.63 billion yuan (the original forecast revenue in 22-23 years was 1.0/1.45 billion yuan respectively), Adjust the forecast of net profit attributable to parent company to 140 / 2.1 / 330 million yuan (the original forecast was 170 / 220 million yuan for 22-23 years respectively), corresponding to 10 / 8 / 5 times of PS, and 12 / 9 times of PS in reference to Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) 22 / 23, the core target of semiconductor equipment sector. As the leader of domestic gluing and developing equipment, the company is expected to further consolidate its competitive advantage and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The downstream boom is less than expected, the R & D verification is less than expected, and the progress of raised investment projects is less than expected
