\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 801 Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) )
Key investment points: wardrobe and wooden door grow at a high speed, and products continue to enrich cabinets. For 21 years, the company has continued to sink channels and blank market layout. The expansion of stores is accelerated compared with 20 years. It is expected to add more than 100 stores. At the same time, the company has strengthened new product research and development, enriched Weiyang product series, and continuously improved product types and styles to ensure the steady growth of cabinets, Overall, Q4 retail end is expected to grow in single digits; The wardrobe continues to enrich its products while accelerating the expansion of stores and promoting the rapid growth of categories. It is expected that the retail end of 21q4 will increase by 40 +%. 162 wardrobe channels will be opened in the first half of the year, and 200300 stores are expected to be added in the whole year. The expansion of kitchen and clothing channels in 22 years will continue with high intensity, and pay attention to the expansion of customized stores in the whole house. It is expected that 200 kitchen and clothing comprehensive stores will be opened in 22 years, and the wooden door will accelerate the expansion of stores with the help of Engineering channels. It is expected that 200 stores will be opened in 22 years. The company launched z7 plan at the same time, cooperated with the customized store status of the whole house, and further improved the revenue and customer unit value by improving the matching rate and promoting the high-end of products.
The engineering channels have gradually converged and the whole assembly has been expanded at a high speed
Under the continuous pressure of the industry, the company collects the orders with risks in advance by sorting out the risks of each project, and the accounts receivable are recovered well. In addition, in order to control the risks, 21q4 company has signed selective contracts according to the project conditions, considering the long order cycle of Engineering channels and Q4 centralized settlement, It is expected that the 21q4 project channel will grow by 30% – 40%. In the future, the company will actively expand low-risk customers such as central enterprises and state-owned enterprises, and control risks while competing for positions. With the rapid development of retail channels, in addition to new stores, the whole packaging is growing rapidly. We estimate that the revenue volume will increase to 300 million in 21 years (100 million in 20 years). In order to meet the cost-effective and differentiated needs of whole packaging customers, the company plans to supply the “IK” product line with rich categories and high product integrity to the whole packaging channel, which is expected to maintain a high growth trend in 22 years.
Cost reduction and efficiency increase to cope with rising costs, and profitability is expected to be repaired
The net profit margin of 21q4 company decreased by 2.2pct, which we expect to be mainly due to: 1) intensified competition in bulk channels and a decline in gross profit margin; 2) The cost of raw materials rose, and the company did not raise the price in order to increase the market share; 3) The gross profit margin of wardrobe is still lower than that of kitchen cabinet, and the proportion of income is increased. Looking forward to the next 22 years, the company will actively carry out cost side refined management and adjust the rebate policy of franchisees. The scale effect of wardrobe will be gradually reflected and the profit margin will be optimistic.
Profit forecast and valuation
The company has set a three-year revenue target of 10 billion in 21 years (22-24 cagr26%), which is a high-quality target with outstanding growth. It is estimated that the company will achieve revenue of 5.153/6.519/8.158 billion yuan respectively in 21-23 years, with a year-on-year increase of 34.17% / 26.5% / 25.2%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company of 5.06/6.20/771 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 28.0% / 22.6% / 24.2%. The corresponding PE is 16 / 13 / 11x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Industry competition intensifies, business expansion is less than expected, and the cost of raw materials has increased significantly
