\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 833 Guangzhou Kdt Machinery Co.Ltd(002833) )
Events
The company plans to invest 1 billion yuan in the construction of high-end furniture manufacturing base in Shunde, and the remaining 1 billion yuan is planned to be invested in the construction of furniture manufacturing base in Shunde. Among them, chairman Li Maohong plans to subscribe for 150 million yuan to 400 million yuan.
Key investment points
The company issued a 1 billion fixed growth plan and plans to expand its scale advantage through intelligent transformation
Shunde manufacturing base: it is mainly used to build five axis processing center, automatic flexible wooden door and wooden window and other intelligent production lines with international leading technical level and competitiveness. In the future, it will further increase capital and expand capacity layout to build a high-end woodworking equipment industry cluster. After the completion of the project, it is expected to achieve an annual production capacity of 10000 sets of high-end furniture manufacturing equipment such as panel saws and CNC drills.
Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) automatic production line: it is planned to purchase advanced intelligent numerical control equipment, introduce Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) application system integration technology, strive to build advanced automatic and flexible intelligent manufacturing production line, and further improve the intelligent manufacturing level of the company’s self-made core parts and CNC furniture equipment production. After the completion of the project, it is expected to achieve an annual production capacity of 20000 sets of intelligent edge banding machines and their automatic production lines and other high-end furniture equipment.
The company continues to put in production capacity to improve market share; Overseas markets are expected to become strong growth points in the future
With the smooth ramp up of the company’s production capacity, the order scheduling cycle returns to the normal level. After the master project is completed, the company’s production capacity can reach about 2.5 billion yuan; The new plant of Danchi Seiko phase I, a subsidiary, has been put into operation and will further coordinate and improve production efficiency; Foshan Shunde manufacturing base is expected to be put into operation in 2023, and it is expected to release 2.5 billion incremental capacity after full production; Guangdong Zengcheng’s new land will further promote the expansion of production, and the market share is expected to further increase.
With the gradual unsealing of overseas countries and the recovery of foreign market demand, the growth rate of export orders of the company in the first three quarters reached more than 80%. The company’s sales team in Russia and Ukraine achieved a revenue of more than 90 million yuan in the first three quarters, and is expected to achieve a revenue of more than 100 million yuan in 2021. The company actively arranges European and American channels and expands overseas market space. The overseas market is expected to become a new growth point in the future.
The completion of real estate is expected to usher in the turning point of recovery, and the marginal demand of the industrial chain is expected to improve
After the central bank lowered the reserve requirement, the credit ushered in marginal improvement, and the most stringent period of real estate loan policy has passed. The intensity of housing loan investment is expected to be strengthened, the demand for house purchase can be released, and the residential sales and completed area are expected to start a new round of growth. The furniture industry has the post cyclical property of real estate. The recovery of real estate completion will drive the prosperity of the furniture industry upward, which is conducive to the improvement of the investment demand of panel furniture machinery.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 2.4 billion yuan, 3.1 billion yuan and 4.0 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 42% / 30% / 28%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 540 million yuan, 680 million yuan and 870 million yuan, an increase of 52%, 27% and 27%; The corresponding current PE is 14 / 11 / 9 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The growth rate of macroeconomic and manufacturing investment was lower than expected; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; Deterioration of industry competition pattern
